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In this episode of 'At the Water's Edge,' host Scott interviews Alex Tarascio, a pollster from Cygnal, a private GOP polling firm known for its accuracy. They discuss the intricacies of polling, the differences between private and public polling, and the impact of partisanship on polling results. Alex shares insights on current voter sentiment, the role of corporate clients, and the challenges of polling on national security and foreign policy issues. The conversation also touches on the disconnect between military perspectives and public opinion, the future of national security issues in polling, and the importance of political accountability in democracy promotion. As they look ahead to the midterms, they explore key trends and issues that may influence voter behavior.

Contact the Show: [email protected]

Cygnal Polling: https://www.cygn.al/

Magpie Spice Co: https://www.instagram.com/magpiespice/

takeaways

• Polling accuracy has improved significantly since 2016.
• Private polling firms have different incentives than public ones.
• Voter sentiment on national security is low, around 5%.
• Partisanship heavily influences polling results and methodologies.
• Benchmarking polls serve different purposes than public polls.
• Corporate clients can impact the type of polling conducted.
• Young women are becoming disengaged from politics and news.
• The issue of abortion is losing its significance in voter motivation.
• Public perception of tariffs is mixed, with many preferring free market solutions.
• Political accountability is essential for effective democracy promotion.

Chapters

00:00
Introduction to Polling and Alex Tarascio

04:45
The Evolution of Polling Post-2016

07:47
The Impact of Partisanship on Polling

10:41
Confidentiality and Trust in Polling

13:39
Public vs. Private Polling Approaches

16:35
National Voter Trends and Current Polling Insights

19:33
Sampling and Its Importance in Polling

22:37
Corporate Clients and Political Affiliations

25:39
Trump's Favorability and Public Perception

28:36
Tariffs and Public Opinion

30:35
Understanding Partisan Dynamics in Polling

32:42
The Impact of Tariffs on Public Opinion

34:47
National Security and Foreign Policy in Polling

38:07
Public Sentiment on Foreign Policy Issues

41:02
The Shift in American Foreign Policy Perspectives

44:01
The Role of Political Diversity in Democracy Promotion

49:20
Challenges in U.S. Foreign Assistance Programs

53:12
Polling Insights for Upcoming Elections

01:01:29
Engaging with Signal's Work and Personal Projects

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