Podcast Show Notes — FX, Commodities, Trade & Geopolitics (29 Oct 2025)

Episode title: Dollar firms, AUD pops; soy buys before Trump–Xi; gold back above $4k

Synopsis:
Today’s show covers a firmer USD into the FOMC, AUD strength after a hotter Australian CPI print, and gold reclaiming $4,000/oz. We unpack the tariff pathway Washington and Beijing are considering—including a prospective halving of fentanyl-linked levies—China’s pre-meeting soybean purchase, and indications of reciprocal port-fee reductions. We also touch on a US–Korea trade package, US steps on Brazil tariffs and rare-earths outreach, and Japan’s LNG calculus. On geopolitics: Israeli actions around the Gaza ceasefire framework, a DPRK missile launch, China–India border talks, and continued US emphasis on deterrence in Northeast Asia.

Chapters:
0:00 Intro and market setup
1:10 FX — USD firm, AUD leads, JPY steady, GBP soft
4:10 Commodities — gold reclaims $4k; oil steadies; copper buoyant
7:00 Trade — fentanyl-linked tariff cut in view; soybean buys; shipping fees; US–Korea progress; Brazil tariff step; critical-minerals angles
12:00 Geopolitics — Gaza ceasefire enforcement, DPRK launch, China–India dialogue, US–Japan security context
15:00 What to watch — FOMC/BoC decisions and the Trump–Xi readout

Key takeaways:
A stronger dollar and an inflation-supported AUD anchor G10; gold is back above $4k while copper stays firm. Policy risk centers on potential US–China tariff relief tied to fentanyl enforcement, visible goodwill via soybean purchases, and incremental shipping-cost de-frictions. Geopolitical skirmishes persist but remain bounded; any escalation would most immediately transmit through energy and precious metals.