Podcast Show Notes — FX, Commodities, Trade & Geopolitics (29 Oct 2025)

Episode title: AUD pops, dollar firms; soy buys before Trump–Xi; gold capped ahead of the Fed

Synopsis:
Today’s episode covers a firmer USD into the FOMC, AUD strength after hot Australian inflation, and a softer tone in gold beneath USD 4,000/oz. We break down the tariff path Washington and Beijing are discussing—including a potential halving of fentanyl-linked levies—China’s COFCO soybean purchase ahead of the leaders’ meeting, and expected reductions in reciprocal port fees. We also flag US–Korea trade talks, US outreach on Brazilian rare earths, and the China–ASEAN FTA 3.0 upgrade. On geopolitics: Israeli strikes in Gaza, DPRK’s latest missile launch, China–India border dialogue, and Belarus’s December missile deployment plan.

Chapters:
0:00 Intro and market setup
1:10 FX overview — USD firm, AUD leads, JPY two-way, GBP lags
4:10 Commodities — oil fades rebound; gold under USD 4k; copper steadies
7:00 Tariffs & trade — fentanyl-linked tariff cut in play; soybean buys; shipping fees; US–Korea track; Brazil rare earths; ASEAN FTA 3.0
12:00 Geopolitics — Gaza, DPRK launch, China–India talks, Belarus missile timeline
15:00 What to watch — FOMC/BoC decisions and outcomes from Trump–Xi

Key takeaways:

• FX: Dollar broadly firmer; AUD rallies on hotter CPI; PBoC fix steadies CNY.
• Commodities: Bullish US stock data couldn’t sustain crude; gold heavy below USD 4,000/oz; copper firmer into Europe.
• Policy: US–China exploring a targeted tariff rollback tied to fentanyl enforcement; pre-meeting soybean purchases signal goodwill; reciprocal port-fee reductions under discussion.
• Geo-risk: Mideast ceasefire framework tested; DPRK launch underscores deterrence dynamics; China–India keep border channels open; Belarus missile deployment slated for December.