Podcast Show Notes — FX, Commodities, Trade & Geopolitics (30 Oct 2025)

Episode title: Hawkish cut lifts USD; BoJ split vote; soy buys and tariff trims after Trump–Xi

Summary:
We cover a firmer dollar after a hawkish Fed cut, a BoJ hold with two dissents in favor of a hike, and an anchored CNY fix. In commodities, gold steadies near $4k, oil drifts after EIA, and copper cools from highs. On trade, Trump says fentanyl-linked China tariffs will be cut to 10%, soybean purchases resume, and rare-earths hurdles are “settled” under a one-year framework; Congress pushes to keep curbs on advanced AI chips. Additional notes on a US–Korea trade package and Japan’s LNG constraints. Geopolitics includes Israeli enforcement steps around the Gaza ceasefire, a DPRK missile launch, and China–India border talks.

Chapters:

• 00:00 Intro and market setup
• 01:15 FX — USD bid post-FOMC; JPY watch after BoJ dissents; AUD supported by CPI; GBP soft
• 05:45 Commodities — gold stabilizes near $4k; oil fades; copper cools from highs
• 09:00 Trade — tariff trims, soy buys, rare-earths path; AI chip restrictions debate; US–Korea package; Japan and Russian LNG
• 14:30 Geopolitics — Gaza ceasefire enforcement, DPRK launch, China–India talks
• 17:00 What to watch next — ECB decision, euro-area data, and follow-through from US–China announcements

Key takeaways:
A “hawkish cut” keeps the dollar supported; the yen stays sensitive after a split BoJ vote; AUD remains underpinned by domestic inflation. Gold stabilizes, oil drifts, copper cools. The US–China meeting produced signals of tariff relief tied to fentanyl enforcement, renewed soy purchases, and progress on rare-earths—while AI chip controls remain a political flashpoint. Geopolitical risks persist but are contained; watch for any energy-market spillovers.