Show Notes – Market & News Briefing (August 20, 2025)

In this episode, we cover the latest updates across FX, commodities, trade, and geopolitics that are shaping global market sentiment.

Key Topics:

• Russia–Ukraine Peace Talks:
  • White House exploring Budapest as a possible venue for a Zelensky–Putin summit.
  • US officials coordinating next steps, with proposals for Ukraine security guarantees potentially involving US air power.
  • EU’s Kallas confirmed the next sanctions package against Moscow is due next month.
• Middle East & Asia Geopolitics:
  • Syrian and Israeli delegations met in Paris to discuss stability in southern Syria.
  • North Korea’s Kim Yo-jong dismissed prospects of engagement with Seoul, saying relations will never return to the past.
• Tariffs & Trade Developments:
  • US Treasury Secretary Bessent said China remains the largest source of tariff revenue and the current framework is “working well.”
  • Mexico will propose reinstating a North American Steel Committee.
  • China and India agreed to restore direct flights, reopen border trade routes, and boost investment flows.
• FX Market Moves:
  • Dollar Index firming for a third straight session, focus on FOMC minutes and Powell’s Jackson Hole speech.
  • EUR/USD slips below 1.17; GBP subdued ahead of UK CPI.
  • JPY indecisive around 147.50 on mixed domestic data.
  • NZD pressured after the RBNZ cut rates by 25bps to 3.00% and lowered its policy outlook.
  • PBoC set the yuan midpoint stronger than expected at 7.1384.
• Commodities:
  • Crude oil trades softer, with WTI near $62 and Brent above $66, after mixed private inventory data.
  • Iraq signs exploration and development deal with Chevron; Equinor preparing to restart Hammerfest LNG terminal.
  • Ukraine reports damage to gas transport infrastructure from Russian strikes.
  • Gold remains weak near recent lows; copper stays under pressure amid mixed sentiment.
• Notable Headlines:
  • UK Chancellor Reeves preparing capital gains tax on high-value property sales to address a £40bn fiscal gap.

Takeaway:

Markets remain cautious with FX steady and commodities subdued. Geopolitical risks in Ukraine and the Middle East continue to dominate, while traders watch UK inflation data, FOMC minutes, and Powell’s Jackson Hole address later this week.