Show Notes – Market & News Briefing (August 19, 2025)

In this episode, we bring you the latest developments across FX, commodities, trade, and geopolitics shaping global markets.

Key Topics:

• Russia–Ukraine Diplomacy:
  • Trump, Zelensky, and European leaders met in Washington to discuss security guarantees for Ukraine.
  • Trump later called Putin to arrange a possible Zelensky–Putin meeting, followed by a potential trilateral summit.
  • Kremlin confirmed the phone call and discussions on raising the level of negotiations.
  • NATO’s Rutte called US involvement a breakthrough; Zelensky stressed Ukraine seeks “real peace” not just a pause.
• Middle East & Asia Tensions:
  • Reports suggest Israel is preparing a plan to occupy Gaza City.
  • North Korea denounced US-South Korea drills, vowing to accelerate nuclear armament.
  • Debris from a Ukrainian drone triggered a fire at a refinery and hospital in Russia’s Volgograd.
  • Russia claimed new strikes on Ukrainian fuel infrastructure.
• Tariffs & Trade Developments:
  • Brazil urged the US to reconsider its Section 301 probe, highlighting tensions over 50% tariffs.
  • India waived cotton import duties through September.
  • Japan and India agreed to deepen cooperation on semiconductors, mineral resources, and AI.
• FX Market Moves:
  • DXY holds near 98 with a slight negative bias.
  • EUR/USD steadies above support; USD/JPY trades around 148.
  • GBP remains directionless as UK weighs new property tax.
  • Antipodeans flat, while PBoC set USD/CNY midpoint stronger than expected at 7.1359.
• Commodities:
  • Crude oil trades softer as no breakthrough emerged from Washington talks; WTI near $62, Brent above $66.
  • Gold steady, confined below its 50-day average, with traders awaiting Powell’s Jackson Hole speech.
  • Copper flat in tight ranges.
  • Equinor preparing to restart Norway’s Hammerfest LNG terminal; Ukraine reports Russian strikes on gas infrastructure.
• Notable Headlines:
  • S&P affirmed the US sovereign rating at AA+ with a stable outlook, citing tariff revenues offsetting some fiscal strain but warning deficits remain structurally high.

Takeaway:

Markets remain cautious with diplomacy over Ukraine showing incremental progress but no concrete breakthrough. FX trades steady, commodities are subdued, and attention now turns to Canadian CPI, the RBNZ decision, and Powell’s remarks at Jackson Hole later this week.