Show Notes – Market & News Briefing (August 20, 2025)

In this episode, we cover the latest developments across FX, commodities, trade, and geopolitics driving global markets.

Key Topics:

• Russia–Ukraine Peace Process:
  • White House confirms preparations for a Zelensky–Putin summit, with Budapest discussed as a possible venue.
  • US Envoy Witkoff notes progress on peace talks; EU’s Kallas says the next sanctions package on Moscow should be ready next month.
  • Trump emphasizes value of direct talks with Putin, stressing that “two nuclear powers getting along is a good thing.”
• Middle East & Regional Tensions:
  • Israel approves an operational plan for an assault on Gaza City, including reserve call-ups.
  • Syrian and Israeli delegations meet in Paris for de-escalation talks.
  • Iran insists it cannot completely cut ties with the IAEA.
  • North Korea’s Kim Yo-jong says ties with South Korea will “never return to the past.”
• Tariffs & Trade Developments:
  • US Treasury Secretary Bessent says tariff revenues from China remain Washington’s largest line, with the framework “working well.”
  • Mexico proposes reinstating a North American Steel Committee.
  • Russia confirms rupee payments are being accepted for all trade and signals readiness to conduct full oil trade in INR.
  • China and India agree to restart direct flights, reopen border trade, and expand bilateral investment flows.
• FX Market Moves:
  • DXY flat ahead of FOMC minutes and Powell’s Jackson Hole speech.
  • EUR softens near 1.1650 despite Lagarde noting reduced but persistent global uncertainty.
  • GBP strengthens after hotter UK CPI at 3.8% y/y and services inflation at 5%.
  • JPY steady near 147.50 after mixed domestic data.
  • NZD falls after RBNZ cuts OCR to 3.00% with a dovish outlook.
  • SEK weaker after Riksbank holds rates but keeps open possibility of cuts.
• Commodities:
  • Oil prices edge higher; Brent trades near $66 and WTI around $62 after private data showed a crude draw.
  • Norway reports higher July oil and gas output.
  • Gold remains subdued below its 50-day average as traders await Powell’s speech.
  • Copper flat, reflecting muted demand and risk sentiment.
• Notable Headlines:
  • UK Chancellor Reeves drafting plans for capital gains tax on high-value property sales to plug a £40bn fiscal gap.

Takeaway:

Markets are steady with the dollar consolidating ahead of Jackson Hole. Oil shows tentative recovery, while gold and copper remain rangebound. Geopolitics continues to dominate the backdrop, with Ukraine peace talks advancing and fresh Middle East tensions emerging.