The railway is a very complex system. RSSB has developed tools for the industry to assess and target some hazards, but not all of them. Much of our risk analysis knowledge is based on the Safety Risk Model (SRM), now in version 9. One response to some identifiable hazards is to impose a blanket speed restriction. These can cover wide areas, and may themselves actually increase some types of risk.

Being able to identify specific parts of the network that may be susceptible to increased risk under certain environmental conditions can help. Building on the knowledge within the SRM, RSSB has, with Network Rail, started to develop the Whole System Risk Model (WSRM). Prompted by the Carmont incident, it’s a project that will take some time, but it has to start somewhere.

03:00 About Marcus Dacre

03:30 Risk modelling work at RSSB

03:59 Modelling earthworks failures in the Precursor Indicator Model

05:12 RSSB’s involvement in responding to the RAIB recommendations to the Carmont incident

06:10 About the SRM

06:53 About Vincent Ganthy

07:34 Vincent’s focus on overall risk created by extreme rainfall events

09:00 Differences between the SRM and the WSRM

10:15 Establishing the level of network vulnerability

11:41 How the WSRM supports operational decision making

13:11 Current limitations and its potential for wider development

14:22 What we've found about the risk from speed restrictions

15:26 How to use the findings to respond to extreme rainfall events

16:11 Current testing and proving of the model

17:20 What’s next, the roadmap to extend the model

You may also be interested in:

How the Whole System Risk Model stops rail overcompensating for extreme weather events (RSSB web page 22 December 2022) https://www.rssb.co.uk/what-we-do/insights-and-news/blogs/how-the-whole-system-risk-model-stops-rail-overcompensating-for-extreme-weather-events

Research project: Development of a system risk model for extreme rainfall events (T1269) https://www.rssb.co.uk/research-catalogue/CatalogueItem/T1269

Safety Risk Model: Improving safety and reducing costs https://www.rssb.co.uk/safety-and-health/risk-and-safety-intelligence/safety-risk-model/safety-risk-model-improving-safety-and-reducing-costs

Structures and Earthworks Rules Changes (RSSB web page 6 March 2021) https://www.rssb.co.uk/standards/using-standards/structures-and-earthworks-rules-changes

Case Study: Risk from soil cutting failures (RSSB web page 24 November 2022) https://www.rssb.co.uk/what-we-do/key-industry-topics/data-insights/earthworks-data-insights/case-study-risk-from-soil-cutting-failures

Any practices described in this podcast shall not be assumed to be risk free. The Rail Safety and Standards Board and other participants in this recording shall not be held liable for actions taken by third parties that lead to loss or injury. Any practices described should, specifically, not be followed in the United States of America or Canada.