October 9th, New York Update: Global Markets and Geopolitical Briefing
Manage episode 512639922 series 3683267
Show Notes — Current Market & News Briefing (Thu, 9 Oct 2025, US Open)
Focus: FX, commodities, trade/tariffs, geopolitics
Excluded: Equities, fixed income (unless tied to FX), crypto
FX
- USD: Extends gains; shutdown data void shifts focus to Fed speak rather than prints.
- JPY: USD/JPY ~153 after steady Asia; markets watch Japan’s political handover timing and any official pushback on FX pace.
- EUR: Subdued but steadier as France signals a new PM path and budget route by year-end.
- GBP: Softer on crosses ahead of BoE commentary; limited UK data impulses.
- NZD/AUD: NZD still heavy post-RBNZ -50 bp with guidance open to more cuts; AUD mixed despite China’s post-holiday return.
Commodities
- Gold: Pauses near $4,000/oz after setting a new ATH (~$4,059); haven bid persists amid headline volatility.
- Oil: Slightly higher despite Gaza ceasefire headlines; market balances reduced disruption risk with China demand resumption and supply signals.
- Metals: Copper holds gains as Chinese markets reopen; broader complex firmer on improved liquidity.
Trade, Tariffs & Tech Policy
- China: New export controls (effective Dec 1) on rare earths and related equipment; tighter rules for dual-use and military end-users; added items tied to lithium batteries, artificial graphite anodes, and super-hard materials.
- US–Canada: Ottawa says scope for bilateral deals alongside USMCA (steel/auto focus).
- US pharma tariffs: Reported consideration to exclude generics (decision not final).
- Vietnam–US: Negotiators traveling Oct/Nov to continue trade talks.
- China lists: Several foreign firms added to “unreliable entities” roster, signaling a tighter operating climate for defense/sensitive tech.
Geopolitics
- Middle East (Gaza): First-phase ceasefire terms agreed (hostage-prisoner exchange; initial Israeli pullback to an agreed line). Conflicting timing reports; cabinet approval expected, with initial releases possibly this weekend.
- Taiwan/China: Taipei warns of intensified hybrid warfare (AI-enabled cyber ops, gray-zone pressure) targeting infrastructure and public trust.
- Russia–Ukraine: Kyiv flags pressure near Pokrovsk; warns Russian fuel supply could tighten from Ukrainian strikes; Kremlin says US–Russia dialogue on a “serious pause.”
- UN peacekeeping: Plans to reduce deployments ~25% due to funding constraints.
Watch next: USD vs. JPY/EUR/GBP levels, NZD reaction post-RBNZ, gold around $4k, oil as China demand normalizes, concrete steps on rare-earth controls and US–Canada trade items, and the Gaza ceasefire’s move from agreement to implementation.
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