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October 10th, London Update: Global Markets and Geopolitical Briefing

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Manage episode 512757573 series 3683267
Content provided by Financial Source. All podcast content including episodes, graphics, and podcast descriptions are uploaded and provided directly by Financial Source or their podcast platform partner. If you believe someone is using your copyrighted work without your permission, you can follow the process outlined here https://podcastplayer.com/legal.

Show Notes — Current Market & News Briefing (Fri, 10 Oct 2025, US Open)

Focus: FX, commodities, trade/tariffs, geopolitics
Excluded: Equities, fixed income (unless tied to FX), crypto

FX

  • USD: Firm into CPI as BLS prepares September release despite shutdown.
  • JPY: MoF flags “one-sided, rapid” moves; vigilance for disorderly FX reiterated; USD/JPY eases below 153 after firmer PPI.
  • EUR: Subdued below 1.16 with few fresh bullish drivers.
  • GBP: Nursing losses; limited UK catalysts.
  • AUD/NZD: Antipodeans stabilize on stronger CNY fix, but NZD stays heavy after RBNZ -50 bp and open door to more cuts.

Commodities

  • Oil: Lacklustre; Gaza ceasefire framework tempers risk premium; Saudi crude flows to China seen lower Nov vs Oct.
  • Gold: Below $4,000/oz after pullback from records; haven bid softer alongside firmer USD.
  • Metals: Copper weaker on renewed US–China trade tensions and cautious China tone.

Trade, Tariffs & Tech Policy

  • China: Customs crackdown on US AI chips reported; new export controls (Dec 1) on rare earths, battery/graphite, super-hard materials; tougher rules for dual-use and military end-users.
  • US: Considering excluding generics from pharma tariff plan (not final); probing channels skirting chip rules; progress on allowing US chip exports to Saudi Arabia.
  • Bilateral tracks: US–Japan coordination on agreement implementation; US–India review progress; Vietnam–US talks set for Oct/Nov.
  • White House rhetoric: Signals willingness to curb “massive” imports from China; intends to raise soybeans with Xi.

Geopolitics

  • Middle East (Gaza): Israel approves plan tied to phase-one ceasefire (hostage-prisoner exchange, initial withdrawal to agreed line); timelines vary, implementation could begin within days. Hamas declares war ended with mediator/US guarantees; US to support via small joint task-force presence with Egypt/Qatar; Houthis say they’ll monitor compliance.
  • Russia–Ukraine: Mass Russian strikes on energy infrastructure; widespread eastern outages reported; US hints at additional sanctions on Moscow.
  • Taiwan/China: Taipei warns of intensified hybrid warfare (AI-enabled cyber ops, gray-zone pressure) targeting infrastructure and public trust.
  • UN: Plans ~25% cut to peacekeeping deployments amid funding constraints; UNSC to meet on US–Venezuela tensions.

Watch next: US CPI for FX direction; concrete steps and timing on the Gaza implementation; enforcement and market impact of China’s export controls and US chip-rule probes; energy-system risks from Ukraine strikes and any spillover into commodity pricing.

  continue reading

86 episodes

Artwork
iconShare
 
Manage episode 512757573 series 3683267
Content provided by Financial Source. All podcast content including episodes, graphics, and podcast descriptions are uploaded and provided directly by Financial Source or their podcast platform partner. If you believe someone is using your copyrighted work without your permission, you can follow the process outlined here https://podcastplayer.com/legal.

Show Notes — Current Market & News Briefing (Fri, 10 Oct 2025, US Open)

Focus: FX, commodities, trade/tariffs, geopolitics
Excluded: Equities, fixed income (unless tied to FX), crypto

FX

  • USD: Firm into CPI as BLS prepares September release despite shutdown.
  • JPY: MoF flags “one-sided, rapid” moves; vigilance for disorderly FX reiterated; USD/JPY eases below 153 after firmer PPI.
  • EUR: Subdued below 1.16 with few fresh bullish drivers.
  • GBP: Nursing losses; limited UK catalysts.
  • AUD/NZD: Antipodeans stabilize on stronger CNY fix, but NZD stays heavy after RBNZ -50 bp and open door to more cuts.

Commodities

  • Oil: Lacklustre; Gaza ceasefire framework tempers risk premium; Saudi crude flows to China seen lower Nov vs Oct.
  • Gold: Below $4,000/oz after pullback from records; haven bid softer alongside firmer USD.
  • Metals: Copper weaker on renewed US–China trade tensions and cautious China tone.

Trade, Tariffs & Tech Policy

  • China: Customs crackdown on US AI chips reported; new export controls (Dec 1) on rare earths, battery/graphite, super-hard materials; tougher rules for dual-use and military end-users.
  • US: Considering excluding generics from pharma tariff plan (not final); probing channels skirting chip rules; progress on allowing US chip exports to Saudi Arabia.
  • Bilateral tracks: US–Japan coordination on agreement implementation; US–India review progress; Vietnam–US talks set for Oct/Nov.
  • White House rhetoric: Signals willingness to curb “massive” imports from China; intends to raise soybeans with Xi.

Geopolitics

  • Middle East (Gaza): Israel approves plan tied to phase-one ceasefire (hostage-prisoner exchange, initial withdrawal to agreed line); timelines vary, implementation could begin within days. Hamas declares war ended with mediator/US guarantees; US to support via small joint task-force presence with Egypt/Qatar; Houthis say they’ll monitor compliance.
  • Russia–Ukraine: Mass Russian strikes on energy infrastructure; widespread eastern outages reported; US hints at additional sanctions on Moscow.
  • Taiwan/China: Taipei warns of intensified hybrid warfare (AI-enabled cyber ops, gray-zone pressure) targeting infrastructure and public trust.
  • UN: Plans ~25% cut to peacekeeping deployments amid funding constraints; UNSC to meet on US–Venezuela tensions.

Watch next: US CPI for FX direction; concrete steps and timing on the Gaza implementation; enforcement and market impact of China’s export controls and US chip-rule probes; energy-system risks from Ukraine strikes and any spillover into commodity pricing.

  continue reading

86 episodes

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