What happens when the global economy's tectonic plates start moving in different directions after decades of synchronised movement? In this fascinating conversation, Philippe Gijsels, Chief Strategy Officer of BNP Paribas Fortis and co-author of "The World Economy in Five Trends," unravels the complex forces reshaping our economic landscape.
Gijsels introduces us to "multi-globalisation" – not the end of globalisation but its fragmentation into distinct economic blocks moving at different speeds. This shift explains the increased market volatility we're experiencing as these economic plates collide, creating dramatic swings in equity markets and currencies. While climate change, geopolitical tensions, and ageing populations in developed nations create inflationary pressures, Gijssels highlights demographics as perhaps the most underestimated force. Africa's projected population explosion from today's 1 billion to 4 billion by 2100 will profoundly reshape global economic dynamics for generations.
Despite these challenges, Gijssels maintains a refreshingly optimistic outlook. He positions innovation, particularly artificial intelligence, as our potential salvation, comparing the AI revolution to humanity's discovery of fire or invention of the wheel. Drawing parallels with Neil Howe's "Fourth Turning" theory, Gijsels suggests we're in a cyclical period of disruption that occurs roughly every 80 years, similar to the era preceding World War II. Yet history shows these periods eventually give way to rebuilding phases led by new generations, what he affectionately calls "young wizards" rather than prophets, who have unprecedented opportunities to create a better world.

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Koen Vanderhoydonk
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