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Problems with Nate Silver's Model
Manage episode 461708463 series 3366290
Rutgers statistician Harry Crane critiques Nate Silver's model.
Timestamps
1:49: Intro ends
3:55: Interview begins
4:08: Crane's bio
8:50: Nate Silver
10:42: Critique of Silver's model
12:42: Silver's criticism of prediction markets
23:57: Silver as tout
25:04: Silver's model
27:48: Simulations in Silver's model
30:51: 50-50 election forecasts
Follow Star Spangled Gamblers on Twitter/X @ssgamblers
Bet on elections at Polymarket.com, the world's largest prediction market.
Attend our forecasting and prediction markets meetup in Washington DC on 23 January 2025. RSVP here: https://partiful.com/e/tgYHaoevQ78X7hpnDUHA
269 episodes
Manage episode 461708463 series 3366290
Rutgers statistician Harry Crane critiques Nate Silver's model.
Timestamps
1:49: Intro ends
3:55: Interview begins
4:08: Crane's bio
8:50: Nate Silver
10:42: Critique of Silver's model
12:42: Silver's criticism of prediction markets
23:57: Silver as tout
25:04: Silver's model
27:48: Simulations in Silver's model
30:51: 50-50 election forecasts
Follow Star Spangled Gamblers on Twitter/X @ssgamblers
Bet on elections at Polymarket.com, the world's largest prediction market.
Attend our forecasting and prediction markets meetup in Washington DC on 23 January 2025. RSVP here: https://partiful.com/e/tgYHaoevQ78X7hpnDUHA
269 episodes
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