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Problems with Nate Silver's Model

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Manage episode 461708463 series 3366290
Content provided by Alex Keeney. All podcast content including episodes, graphics, and podcast descriptions are uploaded and provided directly by Alex Keeney or their podcast platform partner. If you believe someone is using your copyrighted work without your permission, you can follow the process outlined here https://podcastplayer.com/legal.

Rutgers statistician Harry Crane critiques Nate Silver's model.

Timestamps

1:49: Intro ends

3:55: Interview begins

4:08: Crane's bio

8:50: Nate Silver

10:42: Critique of Silver's model

12:42: Silver's criticism of prediction markets

23:57: Silver as tout

25:04: Silver's model

27:48: Simulations in Silver's model

30:51: 50-50 election forecasts

Follow Star Spangled Gamblers on Twitter/X @ssgamblers

Bet on elections at Polymarket.com, the world's largest prediction market.

Attend our forecasting and prediction markets meetup in Washington DC on 23 January 2025. RSVP here: https://partiful.com/e/tgYHaoevQ78X7hpnDUHA

  continue reading

269 episodes

Artwork
iconShare
 
Manage episode 461708463 series 3366290
Content provided by Alex Keeney. All podcast content including episodes, graphics, and podcast descriptions are uploaded and provided directly by Alex Keeney or their podcast platform partner. If you believe someone is using your copyrighted work without your permission, you can follow the process outlined here https://podcastplayer.com/legal.

Rutgers statistician Harry Crane critiques Nate Silver's model.

Timestamps

1:49: Intro ends

3:55: Interview begins

4:08: Crane's bio

8:50: Nate Silver

10:42: Critique of Silver's model

12:42: Silver's criticism of prediction markets

23:57: Silver as tout

25:04: Silver's model

27:48: Simulations in Silver's model

30:51: 50-50 election forecasts

Follow Star Spangled Gamblers on Twitter/X @ssgamblers

Bet on elections at Polymarket.com, the world's largest prediction market.

Attend our forecasting and prediction markets meetup in Washington DC on 23 January 2025. RSVP here: https://partiful.com/e/tgYHaoevQ78X7hpnDUHA

  continue reading

269 episodes

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