The 11-1 BYU Cougars face a win-or-go-home scenario in the College Football Playoff (CFP) race, despite completing one of the program’s best seasons in decades. Ranked No. 11 in the penultimate CFP rankings, the committee has made it abundantly clear that an at-large bid is unlikely, placing BYU on the outside looking in behind teams with perceived superior résumés or bigger brands. For BYU, the margin for error has vanished, making their Big 12 Championship rematch against the No. 4 Texas Tech Red Raiders a de facto playoff quarterfinal.

The path to the 12-team field is remarkably simple: win the Big 12 title. A victory over the 11-1 Red Raiders would not only avenge their lone loss of the season but, crucially, would automatically qualify BYU for the playoff as one of the four highest-ranked conference champions. This outcome guarantees the Cougars the significant ranking boost needed to jump multiple teams ahead of them, including high-profile independent programs and other one-loss teams. A Big 12 crown at 12-1 is an undeniable accomplishment the committee cannot ignore.

Conversely, a loss ends their dream. Given the committee’s unwillingness to move BYU into the top 10 after their impressive 11-1 run, a second defeat—especially in the conference championship game—would solidify their place as the "first team out" for the at-large bids. The selection system, despite its expansion, still heavily favors the perceived strength of the SEC and Big Ten, leaving the Cougars with an unprecedented low ranking for an 11-win Power Four team.

The Cougars control their destiny entirely. They need zero outside help; they simply need to beat the Red Raiders. The Big 12 Championship game represents the ultimate final exam, determining if BYU can cap its historic season with a berth in the College Football Playoff.

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