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Risky Business: Credit Concerns Spook the Markets
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The ongoing government shutdown delayed updates of the Consumer Price Index, Producer Price Index, weekly unemployment claims, and retail sales. Still, there was plenty to cover from this week, including the potential impact on the banking sector amid emerging credit concerns, the strength and state of the consumer, recent earnings reports, a dip in oil prices, and the outlook for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy for the remainder of the year and in 2026 once a new Chair is selected.
Speakers:
Brian Pietrangelo, Managing Director of Investment Strategy
George Mateyo, Chief Investment Officer
Stephen Hoedt, Head of Equities
Rajeev Sharma, Head of Fixed Income
01:35 – The National Federation of Independent Business' Small Business Optimism Index for the month of September fell two points to 98.8, but remains above the historical average. Conversely, the Uncertainty Index rose to 100 – the fourth highest level in 51 years.
02:21 – The Federal Reserve's Beige Book report showed little change in overall economic activity, with some districts reporting slight to modest growth and others noting slight softening.
04:20 – The earnings reports that have been released thus far for the third quarter paint a favorable picture of a robust stock market, despite signs of softening consumer spending and an uptick in volatility and uncertainty.
11:57 – Investors moved toward safe haven assets amid some overall economic softening and news of emerging credit risk.
12:38 – Fed Chair Powell’s recent comments point towards a move away from quantitative tightening, an end to the balance sheet runoff in the next few months, and likely two more rate cuts in 2025.
15:31 – As the government shutdown continues to fuel confusion, volatility, and uncertainty, our advice to investors is to maintain a long-term perspective with a diversified portfolio and avoiding rash decisions based on dramatic news and short-term fluctuations.
Additional Resources
Read: Key Questions: What Does MAHA Mean for Healthcare and Consumer Staples Companies?
Key Questions | Key Private Bank
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