First Draft Live Ep 14: The Decision: What The Fed Just Told CRE (with Jim Costello)

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The starting gun has gone off: The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates 25 basis points. Now CRE can be off to the races.

At least that’s the narrative.

In practice, CRE cares more about long-term debt, and the 10-year Treasury ran counter to expectations and actually rose 10 bps, Jim Costello, MSCI’s director of real estate economics, said on this week’s show. Besides, the industry’s problems go far beyond interest rates, and 25 bps isn’t large enough to make much difference.

“If you want to be successful in CRE, it’s not about that home run of capital market forces lifting the value tremendously,” Costello said. “It’s going to be a lot of singles and doubles.”

That means a focus on proper leasing, getting the right broker, careful analysis of tenants and focusing on operating expenses.

How about all that money waiting on the sidelines — will that finally loosen up with the drop in rates?

“Here’s the thing about dry powder: When you get a little wind, it can blow it away,” Costello said.

“If you don’t have a situation where managers can place money effectively and hit their IRRs, that dry powder will dissipate.”

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