Search a title or topic

Over 20 million podcasts, powered by 

Player FM logo
Artwork

Content provided by Ricardo Viana Vargas. All podcast content including episodes, graphics, and podcast descriptions are uploaded and provided directly by Ricardo Viana Vargas or their podcast platform partner. If you believe someone is using your copyrighted work without your permission, you can follow the process outlined here https://podcastplayer.com/legal.
Player FM - Podcast App
Go offline with the Player FM app!

Luck, Probability, and Risk: What Is Really Under Your Control in Projects

5:34
 
Share
 

Manage episode 518673908 series 129763
Content provided by Ricardo Viana Vargas. All podcast content including episodes, graphics, and podcast descriptions are uploaded and provided directly by Ricardo Viana Vargas or their podcast platform partner. If you believe someone is using your copyrighted work without your permission, you can follow the process outlined here https://podcastplayer.com/legal.

In this episode, Ricardo discusses the role of luck and probability in project management. He explains that while luck can influence outcomes, it favors those who are prepared. Probability, he says, is not a prediction but a decision-making tool that helps manage uncertainty. Effective project managers turn randomness into results through preparation: identifying risks, creating contingency plans, defining triggers, and building buffers. Ricardo also warns against hindsight bias, which makes us underestimate luck after success. He recommends modeling uncertainty with scenarios, using simulations for high-risk decisions, protecting the critical path with buffers, and designing flexibility into projects. True management, he concludes, is not about eliminating luck but shaping how it affects outcomes—turning uncertainty into smarter choices and opportunities.

Listen to the podcast to learn more!

  continue reading

766 episodes

Artwork
iconShare
 
Manage episode 518673908 series 129763
Content provided by Ricardo Viana Vargas. All podcast content including episodes, graphics, and podcast descriptions are uploaded and provided directly by Ricardo Viana Vargas or their podcast platform partner. If you believe someone is using your copyrighted work without your permission, you can follow the process outlined here https://podcastplayer.com/legal.

In this episode, Ricardo discusses the role of luck and probability in project management. He explains that while luck can influence outcomes, it favors those who are prepared. Probability, he says, is not a prediction but a decision-making tool that helps manage uncertainty. Effective project managers turn randomness into results through preparation: identifying risks, creating contingency plans, defining triggers, and building buffers. Ricardo also warns against hindsight bias, which makes us underestimate luck after success. He recommends modeling uncertainty with scenarios, using simulations for high-risk decisions, protecting the critical path with buffers, and designing flexibility into projects. True management, he concludes, is not about eliminating luck but shaping how it affects outcomes—turning uncertainty into smarter choices and opportunities.

Listen to the podcast to learn more!

  continue reading

766 episodes

All episodes

×
 
Loading …

Welcome to Player FM!

Player FM is scanning the web for high-quality podcasts for you to enjoy right now. It's the best podcast app and works on Android, iPhone, and the web. Signup to sync subscriptions across devices.

 

Copyright 2025 | Privacy Policy | Terms of Service | | Copyright
Listen to this show while you explore
Play