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Peloton Free Cash Flow | New Inflation Target for SA?

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Manage episode 485248799 series 17433
Content provided by JustOneLap.com. All podcast content including episodes, graphics, and podcast descriptions are uploaded and provided directly by JustOneLap.com or their podcast platform partner. If you believe someone is using your copyrighted work without your permission, you can follow the process outlined here https://podcastplayer.com/legal.
  • SARB inflation target ๐ŸŽฏ Inflation remains well below target at 2.8%, raising expectations of a rate cut at Thursdayโ€™s MPC meeting. New long-term target could shift to 3%. โณ Rate cut coming? Marketโ€™s betting on 25bps; Simon wants 50bps. ๐Ÿ’ก Lower target = anchored expectations = tamer wage negotiations.
  • Peloton (PTON) ๐Ÿšดโ€โ™‚๏ธ The pandemic darling may be turning a corner with solid free cash flow returning. ๐Ÿ’ต Q3 FY25: $94.6m FCF (vs $10.7m in Q1) ๐Ÿ“‰ Stock at $7.50 (down from $170). Risky turnaround, but improving numbers. ๐Ÿ“Š Subscriptions reviving; de-risked but needs deeper digging.

  • Gold Power Hour coming 19 June ๐Ÿช™ Event: โ€œKnow when to hold it, know when to fold it.โ€ ๐Ÿ“† 19 June with Standard Bank ๐Ÿ“ˆ Gold had its highest ever weekly close โ€“ bullish candles and all.

  • Rand strength ๐Ÿ’ช๐Ÿ‡ฟ๐Ÿ‡ฆ ZAR gaining momentum: from 19.90 to 17.88. ๐ŸŒ Dollar index weakening, Trump tariff noise not shaking markets โ€“ yet. ๐Ÿ”ฎ Simon sees 16.80 as possible ahead.

  • USDZAR 27 May 2025 | weekly chart

    Trump tariffs whiplash ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐ŸŒ€ ๐Ÿ—“ Flip-flops on 50% EU tariffs: delay to June? Or back to July 9? ๐ŸŽญ Oval Office ambush with Ramaphosa. No real surprises. ๐Ÿ“‰ Market's still waiting for an actual deal โ€“ not just handshakes.

  • Renegen* (REN) & ASP Isotopes (ASPI) ๐Ÿงช ๐Ÿšจ Renegen deal: 1 share of ASP gets ~0.09 of REN. ๐Ÿ›‘ Simon holding Renegen for Phase 2 helium โ€“ not keen on ASP. ๐Ÿ’ฐ Nasdaq listing delays = funding delays.

  • Sasol (SOL) โš–๏ธ ๐Ÿ’ธ Transnet drops appeal, SOL gets R4bn court award. ๐Ÿ“ˆ Stock rally confirmed โ€“ chart looking better, Brent still a drag. ๐Ÿ›ข Oil remains the key driver.

  • Pick n Pay (PIK) ๐Ÿ›’ ๐Ÿ“‰ Still losing money, but less than before. ๐Ÿ‘ท Sean Summersโ€™ contract extended to 2028. Break-even delayed. ๐Ÿ’ฐ Boxer + R4bn cash > market cap = value if turnaround succeeds. ๐Ÿšง Market says: โ€œWe don't believe it. Yet.โ€

  • Nampak (NPK) ๐Ÿ“ฆ โœ… Another slow but steady turnaround. ๐Ÿ“Š Results not amazing but consumer headwinds easing.

  • Altron (AEL) ๐Ÿš—๐Ÿ“ก ๐Ÿ“ˆ Strong Netstar performance. Solid accounting tailwinds coming. ๐Ÿ’ฌ Simon: โ€œOne of the few real turnaround wins.โ€ ๐Ÿง  Potential still there โ€“ analyst upbeat.

  • Harmony (HAR) + Copper ๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ”ง ๐Ÿ’ฐ Buying Aussie copper mine for $1bn โ€“ diversifying away from gold. โš–๏ธ Adds immediate copper cash flow = de-risked future. ๐Ÿ”Œ Copper demand = chips, EVs, energy. Chart still flat for now.

  • PGMs: Platinum & Palladium ๐Ÿ’ฟ ๐Ÿ” Trading in long-term ranges (R830โ€“R1100). ๐Ÿ“‰ Not breaking out yet; charts uninspiring. ๐Ÿ“ฆ Stockpiles still working through post-Russia invasion. ๐Ÿ“‰ EV transition and reduced supply in focus.

Simon Brown

* I hold ungeared positions.

All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order

  continue reading

571 episodes

Artwork
iconShare
 
Manage episode 485248799 series 17433
Content provided by JustOneLap.com. All podcast content including episodes, graphics, and podcast descriptions are uploaded and provided directly by JustOneLap.com or their podcast platform partner. If you believe someone is using your copyrighted work without your permission, you can follow the process outlined here https://podcastplayer.com/legal.
  • SARB inflation target ๐ŸŽฏ Inflation remains well below target at 2.8%, raising expectations of a rate cut at Thursdayโ€™s MPC meeting. New long-term target could shift to 3%. โณ Rate cut coming? Marketโ€™s betting on 25bps; Simon wants 50bps. ๐Ÿ’ก Lower target = anchored expectations = tamer wage negotiations.
  • Peloton (PTON) ๐Ÿšดโ€โ™‚๏ธ The pandemic darling may be turning a corner with solid free cash flow returning. ๐Ÿ’ต Q3 FY25: $94.6m FCF (vs $10.7m in Q1) ๐Ÿ“‰ Stock at $7.50 (down from $170). Risky turnaround, but improving numbers. ๐Ÿ“Š Subscriptions reviving; de-risked but needs deeper digging.

  • Gold Power Hour coming 19 June ๐Ÿช™ Event: โ€œKnow when to hold it, know when to fold it.โ€ ๐Ÿ“† 19 June with Standard Bank ๐Ÿ“ˆ Gold had its highest ever weekly close โ€“ bullish candles and all.

  • Rand strength ๐Ÿ’ช๐Ÿ‡ฟ๐Ÿ‡ฆ ZAR gaining momentum: from 19.90 to 17.88. ๐ŸŒ Dollar index weakening, Trump tariff noise not shaking markets โ€“ yet. ๐Ÿ”ฎ Simon sees 16.80 as possible ahead.

  • USDZAR 27 May 2025 | weekly chart

    Trump tariffs whiplash ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐ŸŒ€ ๐Ÿ—“ Flip-flops on 50% EU tariffs: delay to June? Or back to July 9? ๐ŸŽญ Oval Office ambush with Ramaphosa. No real surprises. ๐Ÿ“‰ Market's still waiting for an actual deal โ€“ not just handshakes.

  • Renegen* (REN) & ASP Isotopes (ASPI) ๐Ÿงช ๐Ÿšจ Renegen deal: 1 share of ASP gets ~0.09 of REN. ๐Ÿ›‘ Simon holding Renegen for Phase 2 helium โ€“ not keen on ASP. ๐Ÿ’ฐ Nasdaq listing delays = funding delays.

  • Sasol (SOL) โš–๏ธ ๐Ÿ’ธ Transnet drops appeal, SOL gets R4bn court award. ๐Ÿ“ˆ Stock rally confirmed โ€“ chart looking better, Brent still a drag. ๐Ÿ›ข Oil remains the key driver.

  • Pick n Pay (PIK) ๐Ÿ›’ ๐Ÿ“‰ Still losing money, but less than before. ๐Ÿ‘ท Sean Summersโ€™ contract extended to 2028. Break-even delayed. ๐Ÿ’ฐ Boxer + R4bn cash > market cap = value if turnaround succeeds. ๐Ÿšง Market says: โ€œWe don't believe it. Yet.โ€

  • Nampak (NPK) ๐Ÿ“ฆ โœ… Another slow but steady turnaround. ๐Ÿ“Š Results not amazing but consumer headwinds easing.

  • Altron (AEL) ๐Ÿš—๐Ÿ“ก ๐Ÿ“ˆ Strong Netstar performance. Solid accounting tailwinds coming. ๐Ÿ’ฌ Simon: โ€œOne of the few real turnaround wins.โ€ ๐Ÿง  Potential still there โ€“ analyst upbeat.

  • Harmony (HAR) + Copper ๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ”ง ๐Ÿ’ฐ Buying Aussie copper mine for $1bn โ€“ diversifying away from gold. โš–๏ธ Adds immediate copper cash flow = de-risked future. ๐Ÿ”Œ Copper demand = chips, EVs, energy. Chart still flat for now.

  • PGMs: Platinum & Palladium ๐Ÿ’ฟ ๐Ÿ” Trading in long-term ranges (R830โ€“R1100). ๐Ÿ“‰ Not breaking out yet; charts uninspiring. ๐Ÿ“ฆ Stockpiles still working through post-Russia invasion. ๐Ÿ“‰ EV transition and reduced supply in focus.

Simon Brown

* I hold ungeared positions.

All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order

  continue reading

571 episodes

All episodes

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