Political strategist: Adams’ exit unlikely to shake up Mamdani’s frontrunner status

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Mayor Eric Adams’ decision to drop out of the mayoral race Sunday won’t dramatically change the shape of the contest, according to Columbia political strategist Basil Smikle.

Speaking with WNYC’s Tiffany Hanssen on "All Things Considered" Sunday evening, Smikle said Adams’ poor polling meant that most of his supporters had already gravitated to other candidates. While Adams’ exit narrows the field to Democrat Zohran Mamdani, Republican Curtis Sliwa and independent Andrew Cuomo, Smikle said Mamdani’s lead remains solid.

“Even if all those voters came out and went behind another candidate other than Mamdani, based on the polling, it still really wouldn't close that gap,” Smikle said. “So from that perspective, I don't know that he has a lot to worry about.”

Smikle added that although it’s unlikely, it isn’t impossible that the race narrative could shift in the five weeks before Election Day.

In his announcement Sunday, Adams referenced “extremist forces” in city politics, language Cuomo echoed in his own statement.

Smikle noted that establishment voters have raised concerns about Mamdani’s progressive politics but said New York’s mayors are often shaped by the realities of governing.

“You can't just kind of come into the role and think that a lot of these interests are just going to go away or fall by the wayside,” Smikle said. “You’re going to have to talk to people, you’re going to have to negotiate, and you’re going to have to work out some good policy. So this concern about extremism, I think, gets moderated no matter what.”

Adams’ withdrawal followed weeks of speculation about ties to the Trump administration, which some Democrats fear could complicate the race.

His name will still appear on the November ballot.

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