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Market Chatter: Bureau of Labor Drops the Ball
Manage episode 498885355 series 3553731
"If in our job, we got a retirement plan 88% wrong, I think we would rightfully lose our jobs, or at least I would hope we should."
In today’s installment of Market Chatter, Joey Loss and Adam Van Wie of Strivus Wealth Partners dissect the Bureau of Labor Statistics revision that wiped out 258,000 jobs—88% of the reported job creation from the past two months—and what this institutional failure means for Fed policy, market volatility, and your portfolio.
The timing couldn't have been worse. Wednesday, Powell stands firm on no rate cuts, despite two dissenters on his board (the first time since the 1990s). Friday, the BLS essentially admits: "Oops, those jobs we've been counting? Most of them never existed." The original forecast called for 100,000 new jobs; reality delivered around 70,000. But the real bombshell is that revisions have erased nearly 90% of previously reported job growth.
More than bureaucratic incompetence, this is market-moving mayhem. The Fed makes critical policy decisions based on these numbers. Investors gauge economic health through this lens. When your data is 88% wrong, everyone's flying blind. The CME Fed Watch tool went haywire, swinging 60% in both directions within 48 hours.
Joey and Adam pivot to portfolio implications. Growth stocks continue their mysterious dominance—up 17% last quarter, while some value funds actually lost money. Historical patterns suggest owning both, but timing the switch is a fool's errand. The Mag Seven defy gravity in every economic environment, while small caps languish in a 15-year slump.
There’s a silver lining, though. The democratization of investing through zero-fee trading has created an army of dip-buyers. Robinhood deserves credit—when you can invest $10 with zero fees into funds owning thousands of companies, wealth-building becomes accessible to everyone.
Looking ahead, expect volatility through September (traders returning from the Hamptons), but Q4 historically delivers Santa Claus rallies. With housing markets shifting from seller's paradise to buyer's opportunity and rate cuts now virtually guaranteed, positioning matters more than ever.
Key Topics:
- Fed Meeting on Rate Cuts & Two Dissenters (00:52)
- Market Reaction & Institutional Incompetence (03:32)
- Rate Cut Probability Swings (12:10)
- Housing Market Shifts (14:01)
- Diversification Matters (16:58)
- Zero-Fee Trading Revolution (18:52)
- Seasonal Volatility Patterns (22:51)
This podcast is brought to you by Joey Loss, CFP®, Adam Van Wie, CFP®, and Strivus Wealth Partners. Through Strivus, Joey and Adam provide financial planning and investment management services to clients across the country from their home base in Jacksonville Beach, Florida.
You can find show notes and transcript of the conversations here: Strivus Wealth - Wealth Unplugged.
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Read our audio, video, and written content disclaimer here.
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