508: The Road To 2030 - Are We Headed For Another Great Depression? Wealth Formula podcast

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508: The Road to 2030 - Are We Headed for Another Great Depression?

6d ago 44:13

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ITR Economics has been predicting a “Great Depression” beginning around 2030. Over the past seven years, I’ve had multiple representatives from their firm on the show, and they’ve never wavered from that forecast. That might not sound so alarming—until you realize that their long-term predictive track record is 94% accurate over the last 70 years. To understand why their conviction is so strong, tune into this week’s episode of Wealth Formula Podcast. Once you hear the reasoning, it’ll all make sense. The major drivers of this projected economic downturn are debt and demographics. We’re spending unsustainably on entitlement programs like Medicare and Medicaid—programs that virtually no politician has the appetite to reform. At the same time, the Baby Boomers—who make up a huge chunk of the U.S. population—are moving out of the workforce and into retirement, where they’ll become a significant economic burden. It seems inevitable. But as you listen, I want to introduce one wild card that could change everything: artificial intelligence. I truly believe we’re on the cusp of a technological transformation that could rival the Industrial Revolution. Think back to when Thomas Malthus predicted global famine due to population growth. What he didn’t account for was the invention of the tractor, which revolutionized food production. In the same way, we may be underestimating the impact of the robotic age driven by artificial intelligence. Right now, economic growth is tied closely to the size of a country’s working population. But what if AI allows us to dramatically increase productivity with the same—or even a smaller—workforce? What if robotics drives a low-cost manufacturing renaissance in the U.S., making us competitive again without relying on cheap labor from overseas? In my view, these are the most important questions in American economics over the next decade. And to understand just how critical it is that we get this right, this week’s episode lays it out clearly: the alternative may look a lot like the 1930s.

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