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Market Recovery
Manage episode 500034427 series 167730
Content provided by Ray Zinn. All podcast content including episodes, graphics, and podcast descriptions are uploaded and provided directly by Ray Zinn or their podcast platform partner. If you believe someone is using your copyrighted work without your permission, you can follow the process outlined here https://podcastplayer.com/legal.
It has been quite the ride on the stock market in 2025, but it hasn’t been the one many expected in January. In this Tough Things First podcast, Ray Zinn talks about how the market tanked but came back in what seemed like record time.
Ray Zinn: Hi, Rob. Good to be with you today.
Rob Artigo: Well, it wasn’t very long ago, Ray. We all remember it. This is 2025 and early in 2025, the stock market plummeted and there were talks of deep drops that were going to come after that and fears about recession. How did the markets find their way back to new record highs in such a short period?
Ray Zinn: Well, let’s talk about how the market goes through cycles. So like in life there’s always ups and there’s downs, so there’s no straight up as you would. And so a cycle is something happens and causes the market to retrench in 2008, 2009. And that real estate problem, it’s generally caused when there’s over exuberance, when things are going much better than they really should. The .com bubble was another one. Each cycle starts because it has this massive run up.
And so if things stay on an even keel, you don’t have these tremendous ups and downs. You just have these little burbles that happen. But a cycle is a consequence of something major that happened that where there’s over exuberance and then the market just takes about a year and a half to two years to recover. That’s a normal cycle. Let’s say somewhere between a year and two years is a normal cycle to recover from a bubble or from something that was over exuberant or over inventory or whatever. This last downturn that we had, which occurred in early 2025, which I think it happened sometime in February or March, the market was taken for a loop as you would because of the tariffs and other things that the Trump administration were attempting to put in to strengthen the economy.
That was a view anyway. They were going to do this massive tariff thing and the market got spooked. They thought that, oh, everything’s going to crash, and companies, the businesses are not going to report good earnings because their costs are going to go up and the taxes are going to go up and all these other negative things are going to happen. And so it was more emotional than over exuberance. In other words, it wasn’t… the market was not at a peak as you would, it was kind of dawdling along. And so it wasn’t over exuberance at all. It was more of just we were at a certain point the market was not doing well or poorly, it was just kind of moving along. And then the Trump administration announced all these tariffs that they were going to do, and the market doesn’t like uncertainty. And so there was a negative reaction to that because they thought that everything was going to go to heck in a handbasket and they started dumping these stocks.
So again, we’re talking about why did the market recover so quickly? And the reason is because it’s not non-discretionary spending. It was what we call the discretionary spending, which is things that you don’t have to have that you would like to have, cars, refrigerators, whatever. I mean, televisions. So those discretionary items were the ones that were the focus of the market were the ones that they thought were going to tank. And so as it turned out, this emotional thing, again, it wasn’t over exuberance on the upside, it was negative on the downside. And so the market recovered much quicker once the emotions kind of got out of the market. So emotions are generally short-lived. And so all of us, well, some of us I should say, took advantage of it. When that market dropped, I jumped right in and I bought when the market was down, because I knew it was going to be short-lived because I knew the reaction was going to be more emotional than reality.
It actually recovered a lot faster than I had anticipated. I had a lot of money that I was putting in the market, but I still had some yet to invest. And then as we have seen happen, once the market got comfortable with what the Trump administration was doing, or at least got less emotional about it, the market started recovering. And now the NASDAQ, the Dow, the S&P, those are all at record levels and so we’re kind of back where we should have been or were to be in less than a month actually, or maybe two months. So when we react emotionally to something, it generally is wrong whether it’s being on the upside or on the downside. So we got to be careful about overreacting, either plus or minus.
Rob Artigo: Okay, we could wrap it up with this next thought, and that is putting your prognosticator hat on and talking about looking forward. So what risks such as the tariffs, inflation, and global trade tensions could knock the market sideways or just stop its current trajectory towards more highs?
Ray Zinn: It depends again what the Fed does on interest rates. Trump has not indicated he’s going to fire Fed Chairman Powell, and so interest rates will still remain where they are. They may take a small cut toward the end of the year. I’m not expecting it. I don’t expect a recession. What I mean don’t expect it is, I don’t see that’s anything that would cause the market to collapse again.
And so as long as we go, steady as she goes, as you would, I think things are going to be all right. So my economic prediction predictions are more of a standard cycle as you would Q1, which begins in January, is usually a down quarter historically. And then Q2, which begins in April, is usually a little stronger because we’re coming out of the Christmas slump as you would from that Q1. And then Q3 tends to be stronger even more because we’re going into the Christmas season. And then Q4, which begins in October, it tends to be flat to down. So I expect this to be in a more normal cycle. So looking forward, I think Q3, which we’re in now, which began in July, I think is going to be good through the end of September. And then the market will start retrenching toward the end of September going into October. And then we have a normal cycle again, which is January. We’re going to see the business go down.
Rob Artigo: Okay, Ray, I want the listeners to know they can follow you on Twitter, Facebook and LinkedIn and your books are available. Tough Things First and the Zen of Zinn series one, two, and three. On sale now of course is The Essential Leader: 10 Skills, Attributes, and Fundamentals that Make up the Essential Leader. Our listeners should rate this podcast, continue to keep it growing, and we appreciate everyone who is listening right now. Thank you, Ray, and thank you to the listeners.
Ray Zinn: Thank you.
92 episodes
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Manage episode 500034427 series 167730
Content provided by Ray Zinn. All podcast content including episodes, graphics, and podcast descriptions are uploaded and provided directly by Ray Zinn or their podcast platform partner. If you believe someone is using your copyrighted work without your permission, you can follow the process outlined here https://podcastplayer.com/legal.
It has been quite the ride on the stock market in 2025, but it hasn’t been the one many expected in January. In this Tough Things First podcast, Ray Zinn talks about how the market tanked but came back in what seemed like record time.
Ray Zinn: Hi, Rob. Good to be with you today.
Rob Artigo: Well, it wasn’t very long ago, Ray. We all remember it. This is 2025 and early in 2025, the stock market plummeted and there were talks of deep drops that were going to come after that and fears about recession. How did the markets find their way back to new record highs in such a short period?
Ray Zinn: Well, let’s talk about how the market goes through cycles. So like in life there’s always ups and there’s downs, so there’s no straight up as you would. And so a cycle is something happens and causes the market to retrench in 2008, 2009. And that real estate problem, it’s generally caused when there’s over exuberance, when things are going much better than they really should. The .com bubble was another one. Each cycle starts because it has this massive run up.
And so if things stay on an even keel, you don’t have these tremendous ups and downs. You just have these little burbles that happen. But a cycle is a consequence of something major that happened that where there’s over exuberance and then the market just takes about a year and a half to two years to recover. That’s a normal cycle. Let’s say somewhere between a year and two years is a normal cycle to recover from a bubble or from something that was over exuberant or over inventory or whatever. This last downturn that we had, which occurred in early 2025, which I think it happened sometime in February or March, the market was taken for a loop as you would because of the tariffs and other things that the Trump administration were attempting to put in to strengthen the economy.
That was a view anyway. They were going to do this massive tariff thing and the market got spooked. They thought that, oh, everything’s going to crash, and companies, the businesses are not going to report good earnings because their costs are going to go up and the taxes are going to go up and all these other negative things are going to happen. And so it was more emotional than over exuberance. In other words, it wasn’t… the market was not at a peak as you would, it was kind of dawdling along. And so it wasn’t over exuberance at all. It was more of just we were at a certain point the market was not doing well or poorly, it was just kind of moving along. And then the Trump administration announced all these tariffs that they were going to do, and the market doesn’t like uncertainty. And so there was a negative reaction to that because they thought that everything was going to go to heck in a handbasket and they started dumping these stocks.
So again, we’re talking about why did the market recover so quickly? And the reason is because it’s not non-discretionary spending. It was what we call the discretionary spending, which is things that you don’t have to have that you would like to have, cars, refrigerators, whatever. I mean, televisions. So those discretionary items were the ones that were the focus of the market were the ones that they thought were going to tank. And so as it turned out, this emotional thing, again, it wasn’t over exuberance on the upside, it was negative on the downside. And so the market recovered much quicker once the emotions kind of got out of the market. So emotions are generally short-lived. And so all of us, well, some of us I should say, took advantage of it. When that market dropped, I jumped right in and I bought when the market was down, because I knew it was going to be short-lived because I knew the reaction was going to be more emotional than reality.
It actually recovered a lot faster than I had anticipated. I had a lot of money that I was putting in the market, but I still had some yet to invest. And then as we have seen happen, once the market got comfortable with what the Trump administration was doing, or at least got less emotional about it, the market started recovering. And now the NASDAQ, the Dow, the S&P, those are all at record levels and so we’re kind of back where we should have been or were to be in less than a month actually, or maybe two months. So when we react emotionally to something, it generally is wrong whether it’s being on the upside or on the downside. So we got to be careful about overreacting, either plus or minus.
Rob Artigo: Okay, we could wrap it up with this next thought, and that is putting your prognosticator hat on and talking about looking forward. So what risks such as the tariffs, inflation, and global trade tensions could knock the market sideways or just stop its current trajectory towards more highs?
Ray Zinn: It depends again what the Fed does on interest rates. Trump has not indicated he’s going to fire Fed Chairman Powell, and so interest rates will still remain where they are. They may take a small cut toward the end of the year. I’m not expecting it. I don’t expect a recession. What I mean don’t expect it is, I don’t see that’s anything that would cause the market to collapse again.
And so as long as we go, steady as she goes, as you would, I think things are going to be all right. So my economic prediction predictions are more of a standard cycle as you would Q1, which begins in January, is usually a down quarter historically. And then Q2, which begins in April, is usually a little stronger because we’re coming out of the Christmas slump as you would from that Q1. And then Q3 tends to be stronger even more because we’re going into the Christmas season. And then Q4, which begins in October, it tends to be flat to down. So I expect this to be in a more normal cycle. So looking forward, I think Q3, which we’re in now, which began in July, I think is going to be good through the end of September. And then the market will start retrenching toward the end of September going into October. And then we have a normal cycle again, which is January. We’re going to see the business go down.
Rob Artigo: Okay, Ray, I want the listeners to know they can follow you on Twitter, Facebook and LinkedIn and your books are available. Tough Things First and the Zen of Zinn series one, two, and three. On sale now of course is The Essential Leader: 10 Skills, Attributes, and Fundamentals that Make up the Essential Leader. Our listeners should rate this podcast, continue to keep it growing, and we appreciate everyone who is listening right now. Thank you, Ray, and thank you to the listeners.
Ray Zinn: Thank you.
92 episodes
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continue reading
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