Episode 4 – Upstart’s $750M Trading Tangle: The 15x AI Promise vs. Insider Reality

Upstart (UPST) lit up the markets with a staggering $750 million in trading volume just days before its Q2 earnings — but the signals couldn’t be more conflicting. On one side, bulls are betting on a revolutionary AI lending model with projections of a 15x return by 2028. On the other, the CEO sold nearly half his personal stake and big institutions trimmed their positions ahead of earnings.

In this episode, we unpack:

• Why EPS growth of 258% year-over-year looks impressive but may be misleading
• What a negative Zacks Earnings ESP reveals about hidden analyst doubts
• Why institutional trimming and insider selling raised red flags
• How Eric Jackson’s bold 15x thesis fueled contrarian optimism
• What history shows about high-volume trading strategies and short-term signals

This episode dives into the ultimate question: when insiders are cashing out but bulls are shouting “moonshot,” which side do you believe?

⚠️ Disclaimer: This episode is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be considered financial or investment advice. Always do your own research or consult a licensed financial advisor before making decisions.