In Putin's orbit, Trump & the 'madman theory', Europe's defining moment, German election

The World This Week

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Three years after ending all official communications with Moscow, the US government is suddenly back in Russia’s orbit. The two nuclear powers sat down in Saudi Arabia on Tuesday to find a path to ending the Ukraine war and more besides. The talks were no longer about how to deal with the aggressor in the conflict, but how to normalise relations and make Russia a potential partner for future energy deals. So what of Ukraine?

Left out of talks, Ukraine's president is picking up scraps of detail via the press. His biggest ally, the US, is now his biggest problem. Volodymyr Zelensky suggested Donald Trump was living in Vladimir Putin's disinformation space. Trump’s defence was to attack, accusing Zelensky of being a dictator. "Moscow holds the cards in the conflict," said Trump. But does Moscow have the president’s ear?

It's been a week where Europe was forced to rapidly rethink its own defences and consider how to remain a relevant voice in Ukraine after also being sidelined in the talks. Emergency meetings were held in Paris. Britain's Prime Minister Keir Starmer called it a once-in-a-generation moment for national security, and offered to send British peacekeeping troops to Ukraine in the future. There was no room at the table for Hungary or Slovakia, their leaders being on friendly terms with Putin. Slovak PM Robert Fico said Europe should stop crying with unnecessary nervousness, referencing the shock caused by the US Vice President's recent blunt critique of Europe, which had the head of the Munich Security Conference in tears.

This week has also seen the final TV debate of the German election campaign. The conservative opposition leader Friedrich Merz is odds-on favourite to be the next chancellor. Merz is a helicopter-flying multi-millionaire and a longtime bitter rival of former chancellor Angela Merkel. But analysts say he's capable of saying the wrong thing at the wrong time and has to avoid conversationally slipping on a banana skin if he's to win.

Meanwhile, current Chancellor Olaf Scholz says he still thinks he can triumph, even if others have written him off. There's much focus, too, on the continuing rise of the far-right AfD party, who are expected to double their vote, having garnered notable support from US VP JD Vance, as well as Elon Musk and his X algorithm. Migration and the economy are key voter issues, with Europe's biggest economy sliding closer towards recession. We examine the key issues and profile the contenders.

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