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Market Measures - October 6, 2025 - Do Overnight Gaps Predict the Day Ahead ?

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Manage episode 511456127 series 68544
Content provided by tastylive. All podcast content including episodes, graphics, and podcast descriptions are uploaded and provided directly by tastylive or their podcast platform partner. If you believe someone is using your copyrighted work without your permission, you can follow the process outlined here https://podcastplayer.com/legal.
Overnight gaps in stock prices offer potential trading opportunities, but implied volatility levels significantly influence outcomes, according to a comprehensive market analysis. The study examined SPY movements from 2017 through 2025, comparing gap behavior across different volatility regimes. In moderate volatility environments (IV 15-30), traders find the most consistent patterns, with 1-2% upward gaps continuing 70% of the time and downward gaps typically bouncing back. High volatility periods (IV 30-60) act as "reversal machines" where chasing big moves often proves counterproductive. 2025's market behavior has shown distinct patterns, with moderate downside moves providing buying opportunities while upside gaps during high volatility periods have been more suitable for fading. The key takeaway: assess implied volatility before developing a gap trading strategy, as identical price movements behave differently across volatility environments.
  continue reading

1645 episodes

Artwork
iconShare
 
Manage episode 511456127 series 68544
Content provided by tastylive. All podcast content including episodes, graphics, and podcast descriptions are uploaded and provided directly by tastylive or their podcast platform partner. If you believe someone is using your copyrighted work without your permission, you can follow the process outlined here https://podcastplayer.com/legal.
Overnight gaps in stock prices offer potential trading opportunities, but implied volatility levels significantly influence outcomes, according to a comprehensive market analysis. The study examined SPY movements from 2017 through 2025, comparing gap behavior across different volatility regimes. In moderate volatility environments (IV 15-30), traders find the most consistent patterns, with 1-2% upward gaps continuing 70% of the time and downward gaps typically bouncing back. High volatility periods (IV 30-60) act as "reversal machines" where chasing big moves often proves counterproductive. 2025's market behavior has shown distinct patterns, with moderate downside moves providing buying opportunities while upside gaps during high volatility periods have been more suitable for fading. The key takeaway: assess implied volatility before developing a gap trading strategy, as identical price movements behave differently across volatility environments.
  continue reading

1645 episodes

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