Market Measures - December 8, 2025 - Zero-DTE Weekly Breakdown

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1d ago 25:32

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Hosts Nick and Tony explored Kai's expanded zero-DTE research showing dramatic differences between 25% and 50% profit targets over recent volatile period. The 25% target study revealed 8 of 9 trades closed before 10am (within 1.5 hours), with only one trade requiring extended hold time, generating $230/hour P&L. In contrast, 50% targets forced three positions to expiration (two winners, one loser) with 3.4-hour average duration and significantly lower hourly returns. Kai's visualization showed that even on challenging days (Tuesday's big upside move), SPX stayed inside strikes 45-62% of session time, providing "tons of opportunity to manage at 25%." The November full-month analysis demonstrated consistency with only one $850 loss across 20+ trading days and $144 average daily P&L. Tony emphasized the psychological difficulty of holding through drawdowns to reach 50% targets after being down 100%, advocating for taking quick profits and potentially re-entering rather than adjusting positions which adds buying power and one-sided risk. The long-term statistics showed SPX stayed inside 20-delta strikes 78% of total duration (versus 60-65% theoretical probability), indicating probabilities are typically understated even in low-vol environments.

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