Fresh news and strategies for traders. SPY Trader episode #1135. Alright, folks, gather 'round! It's 12 pm on Thursday, May 1st, 2025, and you're tuned in to Spy Trader, with yours truly, Chip Broker! Let's dive into what's shaking up the market today. The US stock markets have been a mixed bag recently. The Dow and S&P 500 had been on a bit of a rally, but the Nasdaq took a dip. However, stocks have shown they can bounce back, even after some notsogreat economic news, like that contraction in the US economy we saw in the first quarter. Speaking of that, April was a wild ride! The Dow and S&P 500 ended the month with losses, while the Nasdaq squeezed out a tiny gain. Overall, the main US stock market index has decreased since the beginning of the year. Why was the stock market like a rollercoaster in April 2025? Because it had its ups (like when tech stocks like Microsoft and Meta surprised everyone with strong results) and downs (like when the economy shrank, or companies like Starbucks missed expectations), making for a very mixed ride where even experts were saying 'hold onto your hats'! You could be up one day, down the next, just trying to find that steady track again. Now, let's talk sectors. Last year, communication services, financials, and consumer discretionary were the stars, while consumer staples, energy, real estate, healthcare, and materials lagged behind. So far this year, utilities and retail are holding up relatively well, but healthcare is struggling. Tech had a tough quarter, but AI and data centers might just save the day. Energy stocks even managed to gain some ground, despite oil prices falling. President Trump's tariffs are still casting a long shadow, making everyone nervous. That GDP contraction is raising recession flags. And, of course, we're all glued to inflation data, trying to guess what the Federal Reserve will do next. Earnings are a HUGE deal right now. Microsoft soared after predicting big things for its Azure cloud. Meta is doing well. General Motors is feeling good about their 2025 profits. But not everyone's celebrating. Eli Lilly stumbled after their quarterly results. McDonald's saw sales decline. Starbucks missed earnings estimates. Super Micro Computer took a nosedive after some disappointing preliminary results. The US economy is expected to slow down this year, maybe growing around 1.3%, or even less. Recession risk is high, and inflation might be on the rise. The Fed is expected to keep interest rates steady. Unemployment is still low, but we're seeing more layoffs. People are still spending, but maybe not as much. Businesses are feeling less confident, which isn't great for investment. Fiscal policy might help a little, but don't expect miracles. Earnings reports and AI investments are driving the market right now. Data center construction is boosting tech expectations. Many analysts are lowering their expectations for the S&P 500, blaming tariffs and the shaky economy. Forecasts vary wildly, showing how uncertain things are. Earnings growth is key for stock returns this year. AI is a huge opportunity across many sectors. Small and midcap stocks might do well with lower interest rates. And expect more market craziness! So, what's a Chip Broker to do? Be careful out there! With all the economic uncertainty, potential inflation, and tariffs, it's wise to tread lightly. Diversify your investments across different sectors and asset classes. Consider value stocks and safer sectors like healthcare. Focus on companies with solid financials and growth potential. Small and midcaps might be worth a look with lower interest rates. Keep a close eye on policy changes, especially regarding trade. Watch those economic indicators like a hawk. Consider investing in companies benefiting from the AI boom. And, most importantly, stay focused on the long term and don't panic over shortterm ups and downs. That's all for today's Spy Trader! Stay safe and happy investing!