North Carolina Soybeans in 2025: Prices, Tariffs, Crush Capacity, and the Realities on the Ground

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23d ago 50:27

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Soybeans are all over the headlines right now but you might not realize they drive American ag—and North Carolina is a prime case study. Charles Hall, Executive Director of the North Carolina Soybean Producers Association, returns to break down what’s actually moving the market this year: tight farm margins, a potential price rally that hasn’t materialized, and a flood of supply with limited in-state storage. We cover why 75% of NC beans are rated good-to-excellent yet profitability remains elusive, how a 1.6M-acre crop meets constrained crush capacity after an ADM plant closure, and why six-hour delivery lines are more than an inconvenience—they’re a cost center.

Hall explains China’s stop-start purchases, Brazil’s rapid expansion (and quality trade-offs), and how shifting tariffs hit farmers twice—at the elevator and on input invoices. We dig into weed resistance, the dicamba drift debate, and why new chemistries take ~20 years to clear regulation. On the opportunity side: renewable diesel and sustainable aviation fuel are reshaping crush margins by pulling harder on oil than meal. We also hit risk management wins (higher reference prices, improved crop insurance) and why the farm “safety net” still hangs inches above concrete.

If you own rural land, lease ground, or care about U.S. food and fuel security, this episode lays out the stakes—straight.

Key Takeaways

Margins are thin: Inputs up, prices not keeping pace; profitability remains “right on the bubble.”
Big crop, tight logistics: ~1.6M acres in NC; ~75% rated good/excellent; limited storage and recent crush capacity loss create delivery bottlenecks.
China & tariffs: New-crop U.S. purchases lag; tariff volatility depresses demand and raises input costs (equipment, herbicides, nutrients).
Brazil vs. U.S.: Brazil gained China share post-2018; quality/logistics trade-offs vs. NC’s local hog & poultry demand.
Weed resistance is constant: Fewer approved chemistries, dicamba drift concerns; regulatory timelines are long.
Energy demand shift: Renewable diesel/SAF increasingly drive crush margins via soy oil, not just meal.
Risk management: Higher soy reference prices and crop insurance tweaks help, but the “safety net” is still low.

North Carolina Soybean Producers Association

https://ncsoy.org/

National Land Realty

https://www.nationalland.com

100 episodes

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