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At an inflection point or another macro head fake? (Podcast Edition)

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Manage episode 498523334 series 2536921
Content provided by MUFG EMEA. All podcast content including episodes, graphics, and podcast descriptions are uploaded and provided directly by MUFG EMEA or their podcast platform partner. If you believe someone is using your copyrighted work without your permission, you can follow the process outlined here https://podcastplayer.com/legal.

George Goncalves, Head of Macro Strategy in the Americas, takes us through one of the busiest macro week of the year, where we had the Fed, QRA, BoJ, tariff deadlines and announcements, and a slew of labor data. In the end, the biggest highlight of the week was the extremely weak employment report which also had large revisions to the previous two months. Judging by the markets reaction, the downside in jobs data came as a surprise to markets but was not a shock to our macro team which has been flagging how labor market data has been overstating reality for months.

Additionally, the team discussed the recently published Macro2Markets monthly titled, “At an inflection point or another macro head fake?” where we covered the idea of how risk markets are pricing in a goldilocks scenario and how tariffs can be utilized to pay for the Big Beautiful Bill and the potential changes in Treasury demand. George wraps up by suggesting to stay on guard ahead because risks are now more asymmetric to the downside as risk markets are due a pullback.

  continue reading

139 episodes

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Manage episode 498523334 series 2536921
Content provided by MUFG EMEA. All podcast content including episodes, graphics, and podcast descriptions are uploaded and provided directly by MUFG EMEA or their podcast platform partner. If you believe someone is using your copyrighted work without your permission, you can follow the process outlined here https://podcastplayer.com/legal.

George Goncalves, Head of Macro Strategy in the Americas, takes us through one of the busiest macro week of the year, where we had the Fed, QRA, BoJ, tariff deadlines and announcements, and a slew of labor data. In the end, the biggest highlight of the week was the extremely weak employment report which also had large revisions to the previous two months. Judging by the markets reaction, the downside in jobs data came as a surprise to markets but was not a shock to our macro team which has been flagging how labor market data has been overstating reality for months.

Additionally, the team discussed the recently published Macro2Markets monthly titled, “At an inflection point or another macro head fake?” where we covered the idea of how risk markets are pricing in a goldilocks scenario and how tariffs can be utilized to pay for the Big Beautiful Bill and the potential changes in Treasury demand. George wraps up by suggesting to stay on guard ahead because risks are now more asymmetric to the downside as risk markets are due a pullback.

  continue reading

139 episodes

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