2025 Bitcoin Hashrate Forecast w/ Valentin Rousseau

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8d ago 37:57

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Welcome back to The Mining Pod! Welcome back to The Mining Pod! Today, Valentin Rousseau (a.k.a as Muad Dib on X), a bitcoin mining researcher who's worked with Hash Labs and the University of Cambridge, joins us to discuss his Blockspace report on hashrate forecasting for 2025, 2026, and 2027. Valentin breaks down his methodology for predicting Bitcoin's hashrate trajectory, analyzes hashrate deployment schedules for public miners, unpacks how tariffs could slow U.S. hashrate growth – and thus the Bitcoin network’s growth as well, and answers the question: will we still see 1 zetahash in 2025?

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# Notes:

- Projected ~1000 EH/s by end of 2025

- Forecast: 1700 EH/s by end of 2027

- Public miners = 37% of global hashrate

- US tariffs reduced 2025 forecast by 60 EH/s

- Private miners leading international expansion

- ASIC prices flattened since 2022 crash

Timestamps:

00:00 Start

02:27 2025 Mining Outlook

06:28 Public miner success rate

08:30 2026 & 2027 Outlook

11:27 Hashrate prediction 2027

13:59 Accounting for tariffs

16:14 US domestic vs International

17:10 Private vs public hashrate

20:06 Machine purchases

24:34 Greenfield vs Brownfield sites

29:34 Map of US hashrate

31:54 Hashrate averages

35:57 Wrap up

49:29 Vibe shift

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