War of Attrition: Updated Endgame Forecasts for the Ukraine-Russia Conflict

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https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/11200/war-of-attrition-updated-endgame-forecasts-for-the-ukraine-russia-conflict/

Robert de Neufville is a superforecaster and former Director of Communications of the Global Catastrophic Risk Institute. He writes and forecasts at Telling the Future.

Russia appears to have counted on a quick, decisive victory in Ukraine. Its goal was to quickly take Kyiv and other key targets, kill or capture Zelensky, and install a new regime friendly to Russia. If Russia could achieve its objectives within the first few days of the war—so that the conflict was resolved almost as soon as it began—the US and Europe would be unable to unify behind severe sanctions.

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