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The Illusion of Knowledge

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Manage episode 340585602 series 2809044
Content provided by Oaktree Capital Management. All podcast content including episodes, graphics, and podcast descriptions are uploaded and provided directly by Oaktree Capital Management or their podcast platform partner. If you believe someone is using your copyrighted work without your permission, you can follow the process outlined here https://podcastplayer.com/legal.

Howard Marks has long questioned the value of macro forecasts, but in his latest memo, he explains why creating profitable forecasts is so difficult. He discusses the incredible complexity involved in modeling an economy and makes it clear that forecasting mostly provides the illusion of knowledge. He argues that investors are better off accepting reality — that the macro future is largely unknowable — and focusing on what they can know.

The memo is read by LJ Ganser.

You can read the memo here (https://www.oaktreecapital.com/insights/memo/the-illusion-of-knowledge).

  continue reading

73 episodes

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The Illusion of Knowledge

The Memo by Howard Marks

203 subscribers

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Manage episode 340585602 series 2809044
Content provided by Oaktree Capital Management. All podcast content including episodes, graphics, and podcast descriptions are uploaded and provided directly by Oaktree Capital Management or their podcast platform partner. If you believe someone is using your copyrighted work without your permission, you can follow the process outlined here https://podcastplayer.com/legal.

Howard Marks has long questioned the value of macro forecasts, but in his latest memo, he explains why creating profitable forecasts is so difficult. He discusses the incredible complexity involved in modeling an economy and makes it clear that forecasting mostly provides the illusion of knowledge. He argues that investors are better off accepting reality — that the macro future is largely unknowable — and focusing on what they can know.

The memo is read by LJ Ganser.

You can read the memo here (https://www.oaktreecapital.com/insights/memo/the-illusion-of-knowledge).

  continue reading

73 episodes

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