#280 Chris Whalen On Why The Fed Won't Be Cutting Rates In September

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20d ago 40:17

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Chris Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors and author of The Institutional Risk Analyst blog, returns to the show. He argues the Fed is unlikely to cut rates in September despite market expectations, with only a one-in-three chance due to FOMC dynamics and persistent inflation. He expects radical Fed reforms under Trump's nominee Steve Miran, including potentially moving the Fed out of Washington to restore independence. Whalen is bullish on gold as the world returns to sound money, sees housing prices weakening with a major reset possible in 2028, and highlights SoFi as outperforming Bitcoin threefold. He warns the biggest market risk comes from crypto platform implosions while remaining optimistic about Trump's policies despite concerns about subject matter expertise in new appointments.

Sponsor:

Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia

Links:

Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen

Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/

The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/

Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673

Timestamps:

0:00 Welcome Chris Whalen

1:42 Big picture outlook - Fed rate cuts unlikely despite expectations

3:22 FOMC dynamics - need majority for rate cuts, only one in three chance for September

5:09 Fed changes ahead - Steve Miran and radical reforms coming

7:17 Fed independence and getting out of Washington politics

8:39 Fiscal reality - Fed is the tail, Treasury is the dog

9:57 Gold thesis - back to sound money as world's reserve asset

11:40 Gold allocation - still early innings, most portfolios under 5%

14:13 Jobs data skepticism - government shouldn't be gathering this data

16:13 CPI and inflation - too much liquidity still in the system

18:10 Markets still have room to run - buying opportunities ahead

20:18 NYC mayoral race - Cuomo path to victory over Mamdani

22:34 Wealth divide creating socialist candidates - inflation driving pain

24:05 Fed in a corner - can't squeeze economy like Volcker did

26:19 GSE outlook - Fannie/Freddie IPO coming in Q4

31:31 Housing market - prices weakening but reset coming in 2028

34:19 Investment opportunities - SoFi outperforming Bitcoin by 3x

36:15 Biggest risks - crypto platforms about to implode

285 episodes

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