3: 8. The Misreading of Russia: Ideology and the Insufficiency of Alliances The debate over whether Ukraine should join the EU or NATO fundamentally misses the core issue: Russia's unwavering ideological belief that it must dominate and control Ukraine. I

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8. The Misreading of Russia: Ideology and the Insufficiency of Alliances The debate over whether Ukraine should join the EU or NATO fundamentally misses the core issue: Russia's unwavering ideological belief that it must dominate and control Ukraine. If Russians are driven by this revanchist, neo-imperialist ideology, they will continue to seek control regardless of Ukraine's alliances, potentially through misinformation or political interference. American administrations (including Obama, Trump, and Biden) and many Western European powers have consistently misread Russia, treating it as rational or transactional, and thus failed to take its ideological goals seriously. This lack of understanding about Russia's commitment to control Ukraine means that any proposed "settlement" that does not acknowledge Ukraine as an independent state is doomed. Countries like the Baltics and Poland, which have hands-on experience dealing with Russia, correctly recognized the persistent threat but were often dismissed as overly dramatic.1855 CRIMEA
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