In the inaugural episode of The Flux, John Cordier, CEO of Epistemix, interviews Josh Epstein, Director of the Agent-Based Modeling Lab at NYU and a prominent figure at the Santa Fe Institute. The discussion revolves around the potential and progress of agent-based modeling (ABM), particularly in public health, economics, and beyond.
Epstein shares insights into how ABM creates simulations of artificial societies to generate real-world patterns like epidemics or wealth distributions. He highlights the generative explanatory standard, which uses individual agent behaviors to explain macroscopic phenomena, contrasting it with traditional models that assume rational actors. Epstein introduces Agent Zero, a framework offering an alternative to the rational actor model by incorporating emotional, cognitive, and social elements into agent behavior. His work emphasizes the need for cognitively plausible agents in simulations, moving beyond simplified assumptions in fields like epidemiology and economics.
This episode underscores the transformative potential of ABM in areas such as public policy, disease modeling, and economic forecasting, stressing the importance of integrating human behavior into models to improve decision-making. Epstein envisions ABM becoming a core tool in tackling complex, real-world problems, with the field poised for continued growth as computational power advances.
Timestamps
00:00 Introduction to The Flux Podcast
00:23 Meet Josh Epstein: Pioneer in Agent-Based Modeling
02:32 Exploring Agent-Based Models
04:59 Generative Social Science and Agent Zero
07:31 Inverse Generative Social Science
15:58 Behavioral Dynamics in Epidemiology
19:00 Leadership and Decision Making in Modeling
19:33 Future of Agent-Based Modeling
20:35 Global Adoption of Agent-Based Models
22:34 Visualization and Pandemic Modeling
33:46 Why Model?
37:34 Optimism for the Future