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Week Head September 15th: FOMC, Global Central Banks, and FX Dynamics
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📌 Week Ahead Market & News Briefing – Short Notes
- Fed Decision (Main Event):
- 25bp cut to 4.00–4.25% expected.
- Dot plot & Chair Powell’s tone key for FX.
- Fewer cuts than priced = USD bullish; deeper easing = USD bearish.
- USD/JPY Focus:
- BoJ expected to hold at 0.50% (95% probability).
- Fed outcome likely drives pair’s direction this week.
- Bank of Canada:
- CPI Tuesday, rate decision Wednesday – 90% chance of cut.
- Risk skewed toward CAD short-covering if no cut.
- Bank of England:
- Jobs, CPI, then BOE Thursday.
- Rate hold at 4% likely (7–2 vote).
- QT slowdown expected (£70–75bn); a bigger cut to £50bn could lift GBP.
- Gold:
- Key resistance: 3,660.
- Hawkish Fed → pullback toward 3,500; dovish Fed → breakout toward 3,700–3,800.
- US Labor Data:
- Jobless claims Thursday crucial for confirming labor weakness.
- Elevated claims = dovish USD; sharp drop = USD support.
- Macro Theme:
- G7 policy divergence driving FX.
- Watch Fed guidance, BoC easing path, BOE QT calibration.
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