In this episode of the Financial Source Podcast, we break down the UK’s high-stakes Autumn Budget and what it means for gilts, sterling and a potential Bank of England rate cut in December. Chancellor Reeves faces a £20–35bn fiscal hole, productivity downgrades from the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), and rising political pressure – all while trying to keep her “ironclad” fiscal rules intact and avoid headline income tax rate hikes.

We unpack how much fiscal headroom markets want to see, why fiscal drag and frozen tax thresholds are doing the heavy lifting, and how a net tightening of around £30bn could hit UK growth just as PMIs, GDP and CPI are already softening. You’ll also hear how changes to the DMO gilt remit, revised borrowing forecasts, and internal Labour Party tensions could shape the outlook for UK assets and GBP over the coming months.

🔑 What you’ll learn

• Why the UK faces a £20–35bn+ fiscal gap – and how OBR productivity downgrades blow a hole in Reeves’ plans
• How higher-than-expected wage growth gives short-term relief – and why it’s only a temporary fix
• The role of fiscal drag (frozen and lowered tax thresholds) in quietly raising nearly £40bn in extra revenue
• How much headroom ( £15bn+ ) markets need to see to stay confident in the UK’s fiscal path
• What a net £28–30bn tightening could mean for growth, inflation and BoE rate cuts
• How changes to the gilt issuance remit could move the gilt curve and long-term yields
• Why internal Labour fractures and weak polling are an underpriced risk for UK assets
• The link between this “survival budget” and the odds of a December BoE rate cut