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October 14th, New York Update: Global Markets and Geopolitical Briefing

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Manage episode 513567944 series 3683267
Content provided by Financial Source. All podcast content including episodes, graphics, and podcast descriptions are uploaded and provided directly by Financial Source or their podcast platform partner. If you believe someone is using your copyrighted work without your permission, you can follow the process outlined here https://player.fm/legal.

Podcast Show Notes — FX, Commodities, Trade & Geopolitics

  • FX:
    • USD steadied after an early dip as risk appetite faded.
    • JPY caught a haven bid on renewed U.S.–China tensions before retracing part of the move.
    • GBP softened after a U.K. labor print showed a higher unemployment rate and easing ex-bonus pay.
    • EUR slipped as focus stayed on French budget politics and softer German ZEW readings.
    • AUD/NZD underperformed alongside risk sentiment; RBA minutes signaled no immediate cut, data-dependent stance.
    • MAS left the SGD NEER settings unchanged, saying core inflation should trough near term then rise gradually through 2026.
    • A PBoC-backed outlet reiterated a greater market role in FX with guided expectations.
  • Commodities:
    • Oil fell as Middle East tension eased and after the IEA trimmed its 2025 demand growth forecast; Saudi Aramco said demand is resilient and it can sustain 12mbpd capacity for up to a year without extra capex.
    • Gold and silver printed fresh highs in Asia before easing as the dollar firmed; copper slipped back toward the $10.5k/t area on stronger USD and trade worries.
  • Tariffs & Trade:
    • China implemented special port fees on U.S.-related vessels and opened a probe into the impact of U.S. Section 301 tariffs on shipping.
    • MOFCOM said rare-earth curbs are license-based, not a blanket ban, but announced countermeasures against five U.S.-linked firms and warned Washington cannot seek talks while threatening new restrictions.
    • Oversight was tightened on export licenses for rare-earth magnets.
  • Geopolitics:
    • Gaza: Israeli government advanced the plan while reporting incidents along agreed lines; U.S. messaging pointed to a broader regional peace push, trimming near-term energy risk premium.
    • France: Government to present a budget targeting a deficit of 4.7% by end-2026; the fiscal watchdog flagged optimistic assumptions as no-confidence maneuvering continues.
    • Ukraine: Kyiv reported new strikes on energy assets; President Zelensky to meet President Trump to discuss air defense and potential long-range munitions; EU funding moves for a special tribunal progressed.
  • What to watch next:
    • Tone and follow-through on U.S.–China measures (port fees, firm-level countermeasures, license scrutiny).
    • Fed speakers for any dollar-relevant nuance.
    • Any fresh Middle East headlines that could shift energy risk premium.
  continue reading

86 episodes

Artwork
iconShare
 
Manage episode 513567944 series 3683267
Content provided by Financial Source. All podcast content including episodes, graphics, and podcast descriptions are uploaded and provided directly by Financial Source or their podcast platform partner. If you believe someone is using your copyrighted work without your permission, you can follow the process outlined here https://player.fm/legal.

Podcast Show Notes — FX, Commodities, Trade & Geopolitics

  • FX:
    • USD steadied after an early dip as risk appetite faded.
    • JPY caught a haven bid on renewed U.S.–China tensions before retracing part of the move.
    • GBP softened after a U.K. labor print showed a higher unemployment rate and easing ex-bonus pay.
    • EUR slipped as focus stayed on French budget politics and softer German ZEW readings.
    • AUD/NZD underperformed alongside risk sentiment; RBA minutes signaled no immediate cut, data-dependent stance.
    • MAS left the SGD NEER settings unchanged, saying core inflation should trough near term then rise gradually through 2026.
    • A PBoC-backed outlet reiterated a greater market role in FX with guided expectations.
  • Commodities:
    • Oil fell as Middle East tension eased and after the IEA trimmed its 2025 demand growth forecast; Saudi Aramco said demand is resilient and it can sustain 12mbpd capacity for up to a year without extra capex.
    • Gold and silver printed fresh highs in Asia before easing as the dollar firmed; copper slipped back toward the $10.5k/t area on stronger USD and trade worries.
  • Tariffs & Trade:
    • China implemented special port fees on U.S.-related vessels and opened a probe into the impact of U.S. Section 301 tariffs on shipping.
    • MOFCOM said rare-earth curbs are license-based, not a blanket ban, but announced countermeasures against five U.S.-linked firms and warned Washington cannot seek talks while threatening new restrictions.
    • Oversight was tightened on export licenses for rare-earth magnets.
  • Geopolitics:
    • Gaza: Israeli government advanced the plan while reporting incidents along agreed lines; U.S. messaging pointed to a broader regional peace push, trimming near-term energy risk premium.
    • France: Government to present a budget targeting a deficit of 4.7% by end-2026; the fiscal watchdog flagged optimistic assumptions as no-confidence maneuvering continues.
    • Ukraine: Kyiv reported new strikes on energy assets; President Zelensky to meet President Trump to discuss air defense and potential long-range munitions; EU funding moves for a special tribunal progressed.
  • What to watch next:
    • Tone and follow-through on U.S.–China measures (port fees, firm-level countermeasures, license scrutiny).
    • Fed speakers for any dollar-relevant nuance.
    • Any fresh Middle East headlines that could shift energy risk premium.
  continue reading

86 episodes

All episodes

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