October 13th, New York Update: Global Markets and Geopolitical Briefing
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Show notes — FX, commodities, trade & geopolitics
FX
- USD steadies after Friday’s wobble; support from softer EUR and ebbing haven demand.
- JPY weaker after holiday-gap swings; Japan’s MoF reiterates vigilance against disorderly FX moves.
- EUR constrained as ECB’s Vujčić signals comfort with current stance; French politics still a background drag.
- GBP slightly softer amid UK budget/tax-raid chatter.
- AUD/NZD firmer on risk rebound and stronger base metals; BLS preparing to release Sep CPI despite shutdown—key for near-term USD path.
Commodities
- Oil rebounds as weekend rhetoric softens; market awaits OPEC MOMR for fresh balance cues.
- Iraq’s SOMO sets Nov Basrah OSPs: small Asia premia vs Oman/Dubai; discounts vs Brent to Europe.
- Gold near record highs after Asian session pop; silver supported by shrinking freely available stocks in London.
- Copper firmer on improved risk tone and China trade resilience.
Tariffs & trade
- US President tempers tone after 100%-tariff threat; says US wants to “help” China, but threat not withdrawn.
- China defends Oct 9 rare-earth export controls as license-based, not a blanket ban; imposes special port fees on US-related vessels in response to US measures.
- USTR: outreach to Beijing after export-control move; reports “progress” with Cambodia.
- Canada drafting industrial strategy to diversify markets and favor domestic procurement amid US tariffs.
- Switzerland–China to accelerate FTA upgrade talks; Indian delegation in US this week, signaling more US energy buys.
Geopolitics
- Gaza: Cairo summit today to formalize plan; Israel says framework approved and hostage releases to begin; Hamas says deal includes withdrawal and prisoner swap.
- Iran rules out joining Abraham Accords; says message exchanges with US continue.
- Ukraine: strikes hit energy infrastructure; Kyiv claims drone strike on Russia’s Bashneft refinery; US weighing options, Zelensky pushes air-defense support.
- Pakistan–Afghanistan border clashes prompt mediation;
- South China Sea: Philippines–China vessel collision dispute near Sandy Cay;
- DPRK deepens coordination with Russia; pledges tighter ties with China.
Policy/other market-relevant headlines
- BLS preparing Sep CPI release despite shutdown (timing TBC).
- US Fed extends Fedwire/NSS operating days to Sundays/holidays (payments plumbing).
- Netherlands tightens oversight of Nexperia on governance concerns.
- US FCC: e-commerce platforms removing prohibited Chinese electronics.
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