The Two Jacks - Episode 137 - VPNs, Vigilance and Very Bad Polls: The Two Jacks on a Fractured World

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3d ago 1:26:38

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Possibly the longest shownotes in history thanks to Gemini 3 Pro. Bless the swamp from which this AI slop emerged and enjoy the episode. Or just read this, I suppose. The title sucks terribly. Do better, Gemmo!

Show Notes with Time‑Shifted Timestamps

(All timestamps below have been shifted forward by 25 seconds to allow for theme music, as requested.)

00:00 – Welcome, Cricket and the Pink Ball at the Gabba

00:00:25 – Jack the Insider (Joel Hill) opens episode 137 of The Two Jacks and notes they’re recording just after midday on 4 December.
00:00:36 – Quick chat about the looming day–night Test at the Gabba and the prospect it could finish very quickly.
00:00:44 – Hong Kong Jack explains why dusk session timings in Hong Kong line up perfectly with “Asahi o’clock”.
00:01:07 – The Jacks wonder which pink ball is in use – Duke or Kookaburra – and what that means for Mitchell Starc and the batters.
00:01:30 – They flag that full cricket chat will come later in the episode.

Tai Po Fire, Mourning and Accountability in Hong Kong

00:01:53 – Jack the Insider pivots from sport to tragedy: an update on the Tai Po (Typo) fire in Hong Kong, now with 159 dead, from ages 1 to 97.
00:02:07 – Hong Kong Jack describes the government‑ordered three‑day citywide mourning period, mass flower layings, official ceremonies and a three‑minute silence.
00:02:35 – Discussion of schools cancelling Christmas parties and staff functions in solidarity; a sense the tragedy is being taken seriously across society.
00:02:55 – Hong Kong Jack outlines the judge‑led inquiry: not only into the Tai Po fire’s causes, but also systemic issues in building management and renovation contracts on large estates, with hints of corruption.
00:03:30 – Evidence emerging that the green construction cloth lacked proper fire retardant and that flammable materials were used to seal lift wells, helping the fire move inside.
00:04:23 – Bodies, including one man, found in stairwells and lobbies; Hong Kong Jack cautions against jumping to conclusions before investigators reconstruct the fire.
00:04:53 – Arrest tally climbs to around 12, mostly consultants/contractors involved in management and renovations rather than labourers.
00:05:35 – Hong Kong Jack notes large numbers of displaced residents in hotels and temporary accommodation and outlines generous government payments to families of foreign domestic workers killed (about HKD 800,000 per family).
00:06:05 – A harrowing vignette: a Javanese truck driver receives a final phone call from his wife, trapped with her employers’ baby, seeking forgiveness because there is no escape.
00:06:35 – The Jacks reflect on the horror of the story and promise to revisit the inquiry as more facts emerge.

Australia’s Under‑16 Social Media Restrictions & VPNs

00:06:50 – Jack the Insider turns to domestic Australian politics: the under‑16 social media restrictions about to kick in.
00:07:05 – He notes overwhelming parental support (around 80%) but says the government is now “hosing down expectations” and reframing the policy as a long‑term “cultural change” effort.
00:07:30 – Platforms not yet on the restricted list – Roblox and Discord – are flagged as problematic globally for child sexual exploitation, illustrating rollout gaps.
00:08:05 – They discuss technical enforcement: existing account age data, length of time on a platform and the likelihood that some adults will be wrongly flagged but quickly reinstated.
00:08:35 – Jack the Insider explains the government’s theory of cultural change: a generation that grows up never having had TikTok or Instagram under 16 “won’t know what they’re missing”.
00:09:00 – Hong Kong Jack compares Australia to mainland China’s efforts to control the internet and points out China still can’t stamp out VPN usage, predicting similar Australian difficulties.
00:09:25 – Jack the Insider clarifies that VPNs are not illegal in Australia; about 27% of connected Australians already use one, probably now closer to a third.
00:09:55 – He strongly recommends everyone use a VPN for privacy and location masking, and warns that good VPNs now explicitly advise not to choose Australia as an exit node because of the new regime.
00:11:00 – They note that Malaysia and several European countries (Denmark, Spain, France and EU initiatives) are eyeing similar under‑age social media restrictions, with large fines (Australia’s up to about AUD 50 million or 1% of turnover).
00:12:20 – Meta is already scanning and booting under‑age users, but teenagers are sharing tips on evading age checks. Jack the Insider describes various age‑verification methods: selfie‑based AI checks, account age, and Roblox’s move to ban under‑15s.
00:13:45 – Anecdote about Macau security doing ID checks: Hong Kong Jack’s son is checked for being over 21, while Jack’s own age makes ID unnecessary—an amusing generational moment.
00:14:55 – The Jacks agree the policy is unlikely to stop kids having TikTok accounts but might “nudge” behaviour toward less screen time.
00:16:00 – Jack the Insider stresses the real dangers of the internet—particularly organised child sexual exploitation rings like the notorious “764” network—and questions whether blunt prohibition can solve these issues.

Bruce Lehrmann, Appeals and Costs

00:18:22 – They move to the Bruce Lehrmann defamation saga: his appeal has failed and he’s likely millions of dollars in debt.
00:18:45 – Discussion of the prospect of a High Court appeal, the low likelihood of leave being granted, and the sense that further appeals are “good money after bad”.
00:19:22 – Jack the Insider notes outstanding criminal charges against Lehrmann in Toowoomba relating to an alleged statutory rape, and outlines the allegation about removing a condom after earlier consensual sex.
00:20:07 – They discuss the probable difficulty of prosecuting that case, and then pivot to the practical question: who is funding Lehrmann’s ongoing legal adventures?
00:20:35 – Hong Kong Jack explains why some lawyers or firms may take on such cases for profile, despite poor prospects of payment, and they canvass talk of crowdfunding efforts.
00:21:07 – The Jacks agree Lehrmann should have left the public stage after the criminal trial was discontinued; now, bankruptcy in 2026 looks likely.
00:21:58 – Limited sympathy for Channel 10 or Lisa Wilkinson; more sympathy reserved for Brittany Higgins and Fiona Brown, who are seen as exceptions in an otherwise “pretty ordinary” cast.

NACC, Commissioner Brereton and Conflicts of Interest

00:23:24 – The Jacks turn to the National Anti‑Corruption Commission (NACC) and Commissioner Paul Brereton’s side work for Defence.
00:24:03 – Hong Kong Jack recounts Senate Estimates footage where officials first claimed Brereton’s Defence consulting work occurred outside NACC hours, then later admitted more than ten instances (possibly close to 20) during NACC office time.
00:25:25 – Discussion of conflict‑of‑interest: the Commissioner maintaining a paid Defence relationship while heading the body that may need to investigate Defence.
00:25:57 – The Jacks question the tenability of his position, especially given the NACC’s opaque nature, its minimal public reporting obligations and a salary around AUD 800k–900k plus expenses.

The Struggling Australian and Global Economy, Productivity and ANZ

00:26:20 – Jack the Insider outlines Australia’s sluggish economy: inflation remains sticky, GDP growth is flat, and government spending is driving much of the growth.
00:27:00 – They discuss a small, tentative rise in productivity (around 0.2% for the quarter) and the Treasurer’s caution that productivity figures are volatile.
00:27:57 – Hong Kong Jack stresses that historically, economies escape malaise through productivity‑driven growth; there is no easy alternative, in Australia or globally.
00:28:23 – Broader global picture: the US isn’t in outright recession but is crawling; Europe is sluggish; Poland is a rare bright spot but rapid growth brings its own risks.

ANZ and Post‑Royal Commission Failures

00:28:54 – Focus shifts to ANZ’s continuing governance and compliance failures after the Banking Royal Commission.
00:29:30 – Jack the Insider shares a personal story about dealing with ANZ’s deceased estates department following his mother and stepfather’s deaths and the difficulty in releasing funds to pay for funerals.
00:30:20 – Justice Jonathan Beach’s scathing remarks: ANZ is still mishandling deceased estates, charging fees and interest to dead customers, despite years of warnings.
00:31:34 – They recall Royal Commission revelations about “fees for no service” and charging the dead, plus ANZ’s recent exclusion from certain Commonwealth bond business due to rorting.
00:32:12 – The Jacks see this as a clear culture problem: five years on, the basics still aren’t fixed, suggesting inadequate investment in compliance and little genuine reform.

UK Justice Backlog and Curtailing Jury Trials

00:33:05 – The conversation moves to the UK’s proposal to restrict jury trials for offences likely to attract less than a two‑year sentence.
00:33:35 – Hong Kong Jack notes the English historical attachment to jury trials dating back to Magna Carta, and that defendants have long had the right to opt for a jury if imprisonment is possible.
00:34:38 – Justice Minister David Lammy, once a fierce critic of similar Tory proposals, is now advancing the idea himself, creating a political shambles.
00:35:02 – They weigh up pros and cons of judge‑only trials for complex financial crimes, where juries may struggle to follow long, technical evidence.
00:36:10 – Jack the Insider points out that even judges can find such cases difficult, but there is at least some expertise advantage.
00:36:22 – They revisit the Southport riots and harsh sentences for people inciting attacks on hotels housing asylum seekers, arguing that common‑sense community judgment via juries may be better in such politically charged cases.
00:37:26 – Ultimately, they doubt the reforms will meaningfully reduce the UK’s huge court backlog and see it as another noisy but ineffective response.

Ethics in Politics, Misleading Voters and the “Ethics Czar” Problem

00:39:21 – Discussion moves to the UK budget, alleged “black holes” and whether the Chancellor misled voters about a AUD 22 billion‑equivalent gap.
00:40:14 – They examine calls for the Prime Minister’s ethics adviser, Sir Laurie Magnus, to rule on ministerial truthfulness, and Hong Kong Jack’s discomfort with handing moral judgment to “anointed officials”.
00:40:51 – The Jacks argue accountability should rest with Parliament and ultimately voters, not appointed ethics czars, whether in the Johnson era or now.
00:41:36 – In Australia, Tony Burke’s handling of “ISIS brides” returning to Australia is cited: he asked officials to leave a meeting so he could talk politically with constituents. The Jacks see this as legitimate hard‑headed politics in a very complex area rather than an ethical scandal.
00:43:03 – Jack the Insider defends the principle that Australian citizenship must mean something, especially for children of ISIS‑linked families; stripping citizenship or abandoning citizens overseas can be a dangerous precedent.
00:44:08 – Anecdotes segue into a broader reflection: politicians have always misled voters to some extent. They quote stories about Huey Long and Graham Richardson’s defence of political lying.
00:45:24 – They swap observations about “tells” when leaders like Malcolm Turnbull or Julia Gillard were lying; Scott Morrison, they say, had no visible tell at all.
00:46:22 – Cabinet solidarity is framed as institutionally sanctioned lying: ministers must publicly back decisions they privately opposed, and yet the system requires that to function.

Ukraine War, Peace Efforts and Putin’s Rhetoric

00:46:42 – The Jacks discuss reports of draft peace deals between Ukraine, the US and Russia that Moscow rejected over wording and guarantees.
00:47:17 – Jack the Insider describes a gaunt Foreign Ministry spokesman, not Sergey Lavrov, delivering Russia’s objections, sparking rumours about Lavrov’s status.
00:47:56 – Putin goes on TV to reassure Russians they’re winning, threatens destruction of Europe if conflict escalates and claims territorial gains Russia doesn’t actually hold.
00:48:17 – Hong Kong Jack argues European fantasies of imposing a “strategic defeat” on Russia are unrealistic; retaking all occupied regions and Crimea would exact unbearable costs in lives and money.
00:49:33 – The Jacks infer that Putin will eventually need to “sell” a negotiated deal as a victory to his own public; his current bluster is partly domestic theatre.
00:49:50 – They note some odd, Trump‑like US talk of structuring peace as a “business deal” with economic incentives for Russia, which they find an odd fit for a brutal territorial war.

Trump’s Polling Collapse, Economic Credibility and 2026

00:50:13 – Attention turns to Donald Trump’s polling in his second term: his net approval is negative across all major polls, in some cases approaching minus 20.
00:51:04 – Jack the Insider highlights Trump’s recent promises of USD 2,000 cheques to every American plus no income tax—claims they see as fantastical and electorally risky when voters inevitably ask “where’s my money?”.
00:51:39 – They compare Trump’s denial of inflation and cost‑of‑living pressures to Biden’s earlier mistakes in minimising pain; telling people “everything’s cheaper now” when their lived experience contradicts that is politically fatal.
00:52:34 – Hong Kong Jack notes history shows that insisting things are fine when voters know they aren’t only accelerates your polling collapse.
00:53:02 – They briefly touch on a special election in Tennessee: a safe Trump district where the Republican margin has shrunk. They caution against over‑reading the result but note softening support.
00:54:14 – CNN’s Harry Enten is quoted: this has been Trump’s worst ten‑day polling run of the second term, with net approval among independents plunging to about minus 43 and a negative 34 on inflation.
00:55:15 – They speculate about what this means for the 2026 midterms: Trump won’t be on the ballot but will loom large. A future Republican president, they note, might still face governing without a Congressional majority.

Disability, Elite Colleges and the Accommodation Arms Race

00:56:07 – The Jacks discuss Derek Thompson’s forthcoming Atlantic piece on surging disability registrations at elite US colleges: more than 20% at Brown and Harvard, 34% at Amherst and 38% at Stanford.
00:57:10 – Hong Kong Jack explains how disability status yields exam and assessment advantages: extra time, flexible deadlines, better housing, etc., and why wealthy students are more likely to secure diagnoses.
00:57:48 – They cite intake breakdowns at one college: small numbers for visual/hearing disabilities, larger numbers for autism, neurological conditions and especially psychological or emotional disabilities—suggesting a big shift in what counts as disabling.
00:58:45 – Jack the Insider counters that many of these conditions were under‑diagnosed or ignored in the 1970s and 80s; growing recognition doesn’t automatically mean fraud.
00:59:40 – He brings in chronic conditions like ME/CFS: historically treated as malingering or “all in the head”, now increasingly accepted as serious and often disabling.
01:00:02 – Hong Kong Jack quotes a Stanford professor asking, “At what point can we say no? 50%? 60%?”—underlining institutional concern that the system can’t cope if a majority claim accommodations.
01:01:05 – They wrestle with the employer’s problem: how to interpret grades achieved with significant accommodations, and whether workplaces must also provide similar allowances.
01:02:21 – Jack the Insider’s answer is essentially yes: good employers should accommodate genuine disability, and it’s on applicants to be upfront. He stresses diversity of ability and that many high‑achieving disabled people are valuable hires.
01:03:40 – Hong Kong Jack remains more sceptical, shaped by long legal experience of people gaming systems, but agrees lawyers shouldn’t be the priestly class defining morality.

Cricket: India–South Africa, NZ–West Indies, BBL and the Gabba

01:04:25 – They pivot back to sport: a successful South African tour of India, including a series win in Tests and a 1–1 one‑day series with big hundreds from Virat Kohli, Gaikwad and Aiden Markram.
01:05:31 – Quick update on New Zealand’s Test against the West Indies in Christchurch, with New Zealand rebuilding in their second innings through Ravindra and Latham.

Women’s Cricket and Phoebe Litchfield

01:06:19 – Jack the Insider raves about the Sydney Thunder v Brisbane Heat game and singles out Phoebe Litchfield as the best women’s batter in the world: technically sound, not a slogger, scoring “runs for fun” and hailing from Orange.

Gabba Day–Night Test: Australia v England

01:06:50 – With Usman Khawaja out, they discuss the unchanged 12 and whether Bo Webster plays, potentially pushing Travis Head up to open.
01:07:39 – For England, Mark Wood hasn’t recovered; they bring in Will Jacks, a batting all‑rounder and part‑time spinner, to bolster the order but lose their fastest bowler.
01:08:11 – If you win the toss? Bat first, they say—if the conditions allow—and look to control the game with the bat for four hours or more.
01:08:44 – They caution that with recent heavy Queensland rain, the pitch could be juicy whether you bat first or second; the key is getting cricket on Saturday.
01:08:48 – Hong Kong Jack rates this as the best England attack to tour Australia in a long time, especially with Wood and Archer firing in Perth, although Archer’s pace dropped markedly in the second innings.
01:09:36 – They dissect England’s first‑Test collapse: at one stage it was an “unlosable” match according to Ponting and the stats, but reckless strokes from set batters (Duckett, Pope, Root, Brook) handed it back to Australia.
01:09:55 – Mitchell Starc’s extraordinary home day–night record—averaging around 17 with the pink ball—looms as a big factor.

Franchise Cricket, Empty Stadiums and Saving the Red‑Ball Game

01:12:11 – Jack the Insider describes watching the ILT20 in the UAE: near‑empty stands, disengaged fielders and an overall “soulless” spectacle aimed solely at TV viewers in South Asia and the Gulf.
01:13:49 – Despite his love of cricket, he worries this is a glimpse of the future if the longer formats aren’t protected and nurtured. He pleads, in effect, for saving Test and other red‑ball cricket from being cannibalised by anonymous franchise leagues.

Class and Cricket: Private Schools, Clubs and Stuart Broad

01:14:11 – The Jacks explore the class divide in English cricket: all but one of England’s Perth XI finished school at private schools; the sole exception is captain Ben Stokes, who grew up partly in New Zealand.
01:15:05 – In contrast, Australia’s pathway still runs largely through club cricket, though private schools with professional coaching (like Cranbrook) give some players a head start.
01:15:47 – Jack the Insider notes Sam Conscientious (Sam Constance / Cummins reference is implied) spending two years at Cranbrook, reflecting how elite schools build academies with ex‑first‑class coaches that state systems can’t match.
01:16:20 – They agree state‑school kids like the Waugh twins still come through club cricket, but in England, some top private schools effectively operate as de facto county academies.
01:17:31 – Anecdotes about Stuart Broad: a likeable “nepo baby” of former England player Chris Broad, who was toughened up by a formative season at Hoppers Crossing in Melbourne sub‑district cricket. Local players loved him.
01:18:20 – Hong Kong Jack recommends Broad’s appearance on The Front Bar as essential viewing for understanding his character and the cultural contrasts between English and Australian cricket.
01:18:40 – More class culture: Chris Cowdrey, briefly England captain, shows up in full whites and blazer to toss with Viv Richards in surf shorts and thongs. When Cowdrey starts reading out England’s XI, Viv cuts him off: “Mate, I don’t care who you play, it’s not going to make any difference.”

F1, Oscar Piastri’s Bad Luck and AFLW Glory

01:21:11 – Brief detour to Formula 1: Oscar Piastri’s season with McLaren seems dogged by terrible luck and questionable team decisions that have cost him a near‑certain championship.
01:21:57 – Jack the Insider reflects on how F1 drivers like Piastri have effectively been in vehicles since toddlerhood, climbing the ladder from go‑karts to supercars.
01:22:50 – They express hope he can clinch the title in the final race, but wryly note that F1 rarely grants fairytale endings.

AFLW

01:22:23 – AFLW: North Melbourne complete an undefeated season to win the premiership, comfortably beating Brisbane in the grand final.
01:23:07 – Hong Kong Jack praises it as the best AFLW season yet, with marked improvement in depth and skill across the competition. North remain the benchmark everyone else must chase.

Wrap‑Up, Tom Stoppard Anecdote and Season Timing

01:23:49 – The Jacks look ahead to watching the Gabba Test, beers on ice for Jack the Insider and the late Hong Kong dusk session for Hong Kong Jack.
01:24:01 – They note the death of playwright Tom Stoppard at 88 and share a favourite story: Spielberg offers him the Jaws screenplay; Stoppard declines because he’s writing a play—“actually for BBC Radio”.
01:25:11 – Final reflections on how Stoppard would have improved Jaws, then a note that the podcast will soon reach its final episodes for the year, with plans to feature listener feedback before a short summer break.
01:25:56 – Jack the Insider signs off, thanking listeners and Hong Kong Jack, and promises they’ll be back next week.

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