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How cheap drones became the defining weapon of modern conflict

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Drones have gone from hobbyist toys to decisive tools of war and essential infrastructure for industry. Few people have had a better vantage point on that shift than FenixUAS founder Dr Andrew Shelley.

In the latest episode of The Business of Tech podcast, the economist and aviation specialist explains how a decade of incremental innovation has transformed uncrewed aircraft into platforms that can reshape modern warfare, agritech and even search and rescue.

From DIY quadcopters to smart weapons

New Zealand’s first drone rules arrived ten years ago, when the technology was still rudimentary and often home‑built.

“Pretty much every part of drone technology has improved,” Shelley said.

Better batteries and lighter and stronger materials have almost doubled flight time, while mass‑manufactured airframes have brought the price of drones down. and far more capable sensors and onboard software. Other advances, such as sensor technology and onboard software, have flowed into features many consumers now take for granted, such as obstacle avoidance, rock‑solid position hold and follow‑me modes, as well as increasingly autonomous flight profiles.

The Ukraine war, now approaching four years in duration, has been characterised by the use of drones by both Ukrainian and Russian forces.

The changing face of warfare

Shelley recalled watching footage of a small first‑person‑view drone in Ukraine flying straight past a Russian electronic warfare vehicle “festooned with antennas” and striking the armoured vehicle ahead of it. The drone was trailing a hair-thin fibre-optic cable, allowing it to avoid radio jamming systems.

“To a certain extent, what we’re seeing in Ukraine is that the old is new again,” said Shelley, pointing out that the current generation of drones echo some of the cruise‑missile tactics from the early 1990s.

Shelley traces a clear line from ISIS workshops that assembled drones from AliExpress parts, through Turkey’s TB2 Bayraktar successes and Russia’s use of DJI’s Aeroscope detection tools, to today’s battlefields where consumer‑grade quadcopters handle intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance and precision strikes.

The West, he argues, has been complacent: “Turkey was leading the way with its Bayraktar TB2, Iran is clearly leading the way with its Shahed series drones and we are playing catch-up,” he said, pointing out that the US is now reverse‑engineering an Iranian drone rather than setting the pace.

Artificial intelligence is only beginning to make its mark in commercial uses in New Zealand, but Shelley says the leading edge is already visible in applications like Christchurch‑based SPS Automation’s large agricultural drones. These systems can autonomously identify wilding pines and apply “a small amount of chemical herbicide” to individual plants, an approach he argues could transform conservation economics by reaching areas that are “almost impossible on foot” or too expensive to service with crewed aircraft.

Agritech, data and the search and rescue gap

If the military implications dominate headlines, Shelley sees at least as much untapped potential in agritech and emergency response. He cites spray drones that can drop slug bait on vulnerable crops in muddy conditions where tractors would churn up soil and helicopters are cost‑prohibitive, turning marginal blocks into productive land.

Pasture management is another frontier. Instead of consultants walking paddocks with pasture meters or towing instruments behind quad bikes, he expects drones to fly automated grids soon to map grass cover and optimise feed wedges across entire farms, backed by “clever software” to interpret the imagery.

Search and rescue, he argues, is “one of the things we haven’t done well with”, despite New Zealand’s vast coastline, mountains and national parks. Shelley believes agencies need to change their mindset and accept that in bad weather or hazardous terrain, “we have to move into a mindset where we’re happy to lose the technology,” risking a $100,000 drone instead of a multi‑million‑dollar helicopter and its crew to find people in distress.

Building a drone industry – and workforce

FenixUAS sits at the centre of the fledgling drone ecosystem, training over a thousand civilian and government operators a year, including the New Zealand Defence Force, and certifying many of the country’s advanced drone operators. That gives Shelley what he calls a broader overview of what everyone’s doing with drones than perhaps anyone else in the country, from agritech to infrastructure inspection.

While firms like Tauranga-based Syos, and SPS Automation point to a growing UAV scene, he says the real bottleneck is software talent, with drone companies crying out for mechatronics and software engineers who can turn raw imagery into usable insights.

Listen to Episode 130 of The Business of Tech podcast featuring Dr Andrew Shelley, streaming on iHeartRadio or wherever you get your podcasts.

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