When Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, or Lula, was re-elected as the President of Brazil in 2022, defeating Jair Bolsonaro in a tense election, the Brazilian left and many around the world breathed an almost literal sigh of relief. Under Bolsonaro, Brazil’s ecological and climate record was scorched, with deforestation in the Amazon reaching record highs.

Hopes were high, and for good reason: Lula campaigned on the rights of the working class and Brazil’s Indigenous peoples; under his watch deforestation quickly began to fall; and at COP27 in Egypt he declared in no uncertain terms: "Brazil is back."

Yet Lula’s record so far is complex, particularly when it comes to the challenges and perceived trade-offs of economic development and the climate, all while managing powerful competing forces in Brazilian politics.

As COP30 begins in Belém Brazil, Adrienne is joined by Sabrina Fernandes, an economic sociologist and head of research at the Alameda Institute, to discuss her essay “Lula’s Dilemma”, which she wrote for the second print issue of The BREAK—DOWN, on the complexities of Brazilian ecological politics, the power of big agri-business and what we can expect from Brazil’s leadership of this year’s climate conference.

Further reading: Sabrina Fernandes, Lula’s Dilemma, The BREAK—DOWN