Market pulse: Bevalc dollars down, beer & wine weakest; spirits growth concentrated in RTDs; NA beer resilient; ABI steady share; Modelo cools.

Moderation & value: Only ~54% of adults drink; shoppers gravitate to sub-$20 and trimmed craft lineups.

RTDs surge: RTD share +420 bps YoY; Cutwater standout; core spirits soften on price/mix.

THC beverages: Target MN pilot launches; Ohio pauses intoxicating hemp; CA channels intoxicating hemp to cannabis by 2028.

Route-to-market: NBWA emphasizes distributor independence; SGWS–Provi settlement legitimizes digital ordering.

Capacity pinch: Manna/NorCal plant auctions tighten co-packing; plan longer lead times.

Wine stress: CA oversupply + Canada export collapse; producers cut price points and replant acreage.

TWE transition: Expect promo noise and sporadic outages as inventory resets.

People & deals: Duckhorn employee ownership; BrewDog cost actions; Westward sale; Napa asset trade.

Policy watch: CA DtC spirits pilot for 2026; AL bailment fee +$0.28/case; IL craft license; MI tightening THC rules.

Cognac supply: BNIC to remove 10–13.5k ha; potential for firmer US wholesale pricing.