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The Forecasting Strategy for SME CFOs to Replace Flawed Models with Targeted Realism – Gemma Doran

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Manage episode 495590352 series 3652738
Content provided by Tejas Parikh. All podcast content including episodes, graphics, and podcast descriptions are uploaded and provided directly by Tejas Parikh or their podcast platform partner. If you believe someone is using your copyrighted work without your permission, you can follow the process outlined here https://podcastplayer.com/legal.

Get out of Excel Hell and enhance your financial analytics skills with our FREE Introduction to Power BI for Financial Analysis: https://bit.ly/power-bi-financial-ananlysis-training

In this insightful episode of FP&A Unboxed Podcast, host Tejas Parikh sits down with Gemma Doran, Portfolio Chief Finance Officer at The CFO Centre UK who specializes in the leisure and hospitality sectors, treasury management, and fundraising. With extensive experience scaling SMEs and startups, Gemma unpacks the art of balancing “targeted realism” in financial forecasting, how to structure cashflows that adapt in fast-paced environments, and the real value of immersive business understanding in FP&A.

Gemma shares practical advice on building flexible models, engaging stakeholders through collaborative driver-based budgeting, and how storytelling and communication are essential tools in the finance professional’s toolkit. Whether you’re a junior FP&A analyst or a seasoned CFO, this episode delivers tangible takeaways to elevate your forecasting and financial storytelling game.

Key Takeaways

Targeted Realism in Forecasting: Forecasts must reflect ambition while staying defensible through scenario planning and sensitivity analysis.

Collaboration Over Control: Driver-based models are only effective when co-created with business partners who understand the real levers of performance.

Communication is Crucial: Great analysts and CFOs must not only build models but also explain and challenge assumptions with confidence.

Cashflow Visibility is Everything: In SMEs, cashflow management is often hand-to-mouth, daily visibility and flexible models are key.

Invest Time in the Build Phase: Rushing a financial model compromises credibility, building strong foundations to withstand investor scrutiny.

Noteworthy Quotes

"Your forecast is right for now. It’s not a crystal ball, it's a living, changing tool." – Gemma Doran

"Driver-based planning has to be collaborative. It’s not top-down or bottom-up, it’s across." – Gemma Doran

"Don’t rush the build. If your model isn’t watertight, investors will drive a truck through it." – Gemma Doran

"We are owners, not renters, in finance, no matter if you’re fractional or full-time." – Gemma Doran

"Forecasting is both an art and a science, knowing how to structure and when to adapt." – Gemma Doran

Key Timestamps

[00:00] Coming up next & Call to Action

[01:17] Introduction to guest – Gemma Doran

[02:09] The rise of fractional CFOs in the SME world

[05:24] Balancing targeted realism in SME forecasting

[07:32] Driver-based budgeting and stakeholder alignment

[09:25] Core mindsets needed in a chaotic SME finance environment

[13:20] Visuals vs. logic: Effective storytelling in SME FP&A

[16:09] Pitfalls in theoretical financial modelling

[19:42] Cashflow control at a micro level in SMEs

[25:13] Why you must invest time in the model-building phase

[26:29] Structuring rolling forecasts for shifting business landscapes

[28:11] Forecasting: art or science?

[29:18] ESG and the future of finance modeling

[30:32] What FP&A teams really need to be better strategic partners

FOLLOW OUR GUEST GEMMA DORAN ON:

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/gemma-doran-a7a68b28p/

Website: https://www.cfocentre.com/

FOLLOW OUR HOST TEJAS PARIKH ON:

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/tejasparikh/

Website: https://aksharconsulting.co.uk/

FOLLOW FP&A UNBOXED PODCAST ON:

Website: https://aksharconsulting.com/

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/aksharconsultingltd/

Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/aksharbusinessconsulting

X: https://x.com/AksharBusiness

TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@aksharbusinessconsulting?is_from_webapp=1&sender_device=pc

  continue reading

17 episodes

Artwork
iconShare
 
Manage episode 495590352 series 3652738
Content provided by Tejas Parikh. All podcast content including episodes, graphics, and podcast descriptions are uploaded and provided directly by Tejas Parikh or their podcast platform partner. If you believe someone is using your copyrighted work without your permission, you can follow the process outlined here https://podcastplayer.com/legal.

Get out of Excel Hell and enhance your financial analytics skills with our FREE Introduction to Power BI for Financial Analysis: https://bit.ly/power-bi-financial-ananlysis-training

In this insightful episode of FP&A Unboxed Podcast, host Tejas Parikh sits down with Gemma Doran, Portfolio Chief Finance Officer at The CFO Centre UK who specializes in the leisure and hospitality sectors, treasury management, and fundraising. With extensive experience scaling SMEs and startups, Gemma unpacks the art of balancing “targeted realism” in financial forecasting, how to structure cashflows that adapt in fast-paced environments, and the real value of immersive business understanding in FP&A.

Gemma shares practical advice on building flexible models, engaging stakeholders through collaborative driver-based budgeting, and how storytelling and communication are essential tools in the finance professional’s toolkit. Whether you’re a junior FP&A analyst or a seasoned CFO, this episode delivers tangible takeaways to elevate your forecasting and financial storytelling game.

Key Takeaways

Targeted Realism in Forecasting: Forecasts must reflect ambition while staying defensible through scenario planning and sensitivity analysis.

Collaboration Over Control: Driver-based models are only effective when co-created with business partners who understand the real levers of performance.

Communication is Crucial: Great analysts and CFOs must not only build models but also explain and challenge assumptions with confidence.

Cashflow Visibility is Everything: In SMEs, cashflow management is often hand-to-mouth, daily visibility and flexible models are key.

Invest Time in the Build Phase: Rushing a financial model compromises credibility, building strong foundations to withstand investor scrutiny.

Noteworthy Quotes

"Your forecast is right for now. It’s not a crystal ball, it's a living, changing tool." – Gemma Doran

"Driver-based planning has to be collaborative. It’s not top-down or bottom-up, it’s across." – Gemma Doran

"Don’t rush the build. If your model isn’t watertight, investors will drive a truck through it." – Gemma Doran

"We are owners, not renters, in finance, no matter if you’re fractional or full-time." – Gemma Doran

"Forecasting is both an art and a science, knowing how to structure and when to adapt." – Gemma Doran

Key Timestamps

[00:00] Coming up next & Call to Action

[01:17] Introduction to guest – Gemma Doran

[02:09] The rise of fractional CFOs in the SME world

[05:24] Balancing targeted realism in SME forecasting

[07:32] Driver-based budgeting and stakeholder alignment

[09:25] Core mindsets needed in a chaotic SME finance environment

[13:20] Visuals vs. logic: Effective storytelling in SME FP&A

[16:09] Pitfalls in theoretical financial modelling

[19:42] Cashflow control at a micro level in SMEs

[25:13] Why you must invest time in the model-building phase

[26:29] Structuring rolling forecasts for shifting business landscapes

[28:11] Forecasting: art or science?

[29:18] ESG and the future of finance modeling

[30:32] What FP&A teams really need to be better strategic partners

FOLLOW OUR GUEST GEMMA DORAN ON:

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/gemma-doran-a7a68b28p/

Website: https://www.cfocentre.com/

FOLLOW OUR HOST TEJAS PARIKH ON:

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/tejasparikh/

Website: https://aksharconsulting.co.uk/

FOLLOW FP&A UNBOXED PODCAST ON:

Website: https://aksharconsulting.com/

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/aksharconsultingltd/

Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/aksharbusinessconsulting

X: https://x.com/AksharBusiness

TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@aksharbusinessconsulting?is_from_webapp=1&sender_device=pc

  continue reading

17 episodes

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