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Fix It Friday - Ambiguity Bias and the Relationship Between Certainty and Return
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Welcome to Fix-It Friday, the podcast segment that simplifies financial strategies to help you make smarter decisions. Hosted by Jonathan Blau, CEO of Fusion Family Wealth. Each episode dives into common biases that impact our financial choices—and how to fix them. This week, Jonathan discussed the concept of ambiguity bias and its impact on financial decision-making. He explores how this cognitive bias can lead investors to make suboptimal choices by favoring more certain but potentially lower-returning investments.
IN THIS EPISODE:
- [00:00] Introduction to ambiguity bias and its paradoxical effect on wealth management
- [00:51] Jonathan introduces ambiguity bias and its paradoxical effect on wealth management
- [02:56] Explanation of risk vs. ambiguity in investing, using S&P 500 data
- [03:57] Historical returns comparison between stocks and bonds over the past century
- [06:31] Real-life examples of ambiguity bias affecting investment decisions
- [08:32] Strategies to combat ambiguity bias and make better long-term financial choices
KEY TAKEAWAYS:
- Ambiguity bias drives investors towards choices with more certain cash flows, potentially increasing the risk of failing to meet long-term financial goals.
- Over extended time horizons, stocks have historically outperformed bonds, with higher probabilities of positive returns.
- Focusing on total returns (dividends plus growth) rather than just dividend yield can lead to better long-term investment outcomes.
- Combating ambiguity bias requires considering trade-offs between short-term certainty and long-term financial success.
- Investors should focus on risk and return probabilities rather than seeking to avoid ambiguity, emphasizing a long-term perspective in investing.
ABOUT THE HOST: Jonathan Blau is the President and CEO of Fusion Family Wealth, founded in 2013 to focus on behavioral finance and guide clients toward rational financial decisions. A sought-after speaker in wealth management, Jonathan previously held senior roles in tax and estate planning at Arthur Andersen. He has a BS in Finance, an MS in Taxation, and an MBA in Accounting. Based on Long Island, Jonathan is active in the local business community, supports causes like the Middle Market Alliance and Sunrise Day Camp, and enjoys boating with his family.
RESOURCE LINKS
Fusion Family Wealth - Website
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