Overconfidence is often hailed as a strength in leadership, but what happens when that confidence blinds us to crucial risks? In today’s episode, we explore the dark side of overconfidence and its impact on leadership decisions.

Using historical examples such as the Challenger disaster and the sinking of the Titanic, we’ll explore the dangers of unchecked certainty and the psychological forces at play that make this behavior so pervasive, even in the most capable individuals.

Don’t let this evolutionary trait derail your leadership potential. Join me in this series as we break down how the illusion of control can skew your judgment in making decisions and affect your team’s success.

In this episode:

- The Challenger disaster: a case study in overconfidence

- Additional historical examples of overconfidence

- The biology and psychology behind overconfidence

- Modern research findings on overconfidence

- Introduction of Mammoth Leadership Science courses & book

Order The Mammoth in the Room: https://mammothleadershipsciences.com/book/

Resources Used in the Episode:

Moore, D. A., & Healy, P. J. (2008). The Trouble with Overconfidence. Psychological Review, 115(2), 502–517: https://healy.econ.ohio-state.edu/papers/Moore_Healy-TroubleWithOverconfidence.pdf

Belmi, P., Neale, M. A., Reiff, D., & Ulfe, R. (2020). The Social Advantage of Miscalibrated Individuals. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 118(2), 254–282: https://www.apa.org/pubs/journals/releases/psp-pspi0000187.pdf

Dunning, D., & Kruger, J. (1999). Unskilled and Unaware of It. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 77(6), 1121–1134: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/12688660_Unskilled_and_Unaware_of_It_How_Difficulties_in_Recognizing_One's_Own_Incompetence_Lead_to_Inflated_Self-Assessments

Ehrlinger, J., Mitchum, A. L., & Dweck, C. S. (2016). Understanding Overconfidence. Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, 63, 94–100: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/284086755_Understanding_overconfidence_Theories_of_intelligence_preferential_attention_and_distorted_self-assessment

Trivers, R. (2011). The Folly of Fools: The Logic of Deceit and Self-Deception in Human Life. New York: Basic Books: https://psycnet.apa.org/record/2011-24018-000

Vaughan, D. (1996). The Challenger Launch Decision: Risky Technology, Culture, and Deviance at NASA. University of Chicago Press: https://press.uchicago.edu/ucp/books/book/chicago/C/bo22781921.html

Lord, W. (1955). A Night to Remember. New York: Holt: https://www.amazon.com/Night-Remember-Walter-Lord/dp/0030276152

Roberts, A. (2014). Napoleon: A Life. New York: Viking Press: https://www.amazon.com/Napoleon-Life-Andrew-Roberts/dp/0143127853

Get in Touch:

Website: https://www.mammothleadershipsciences.com

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/nicolaspokorny

YouTube: www.youtube.com/@MammothLeadershipSciences