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Shingles Shot and Dementia: Could one vaccine protect your brain?

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Manage episode 517500479 series 3646567
Content provided by Regina Nuzzo and Kristin Sainani. All podcast content including episodes, graphics, and podcast descriptions are uploaded and provided directly by Regina Nuzzo and Kristin Sainani or their podcast platform partner. If you believe someone is using your copyrighted work without your permission, you can follow the process outlined here https://podcastplayer.com/legal.

What do chickenpox and shingles have to do with your brain? This week, we dig into two 2025 headline-grabbing studies that link the shingles shot to lower dementia rates. We start in Wales, where a birthday cutoff turned into the perfect natural experiment, and end in the U.S. with a multi-million-person megastudy. Featuring bias-variance Goldilockses, Fozzy-the-Bear regression discontinuities, a Barbie-versus-Oppenheimer showdown for propensity scores – and the hottest rebrand of inverse-probability weighting you’ll ever hear.

Statistical topics

  • Absolute vs. relative risk
  • Bias–variance tradeoff
  • Causal inference
  • Censoring
  • Confounding
  • Fuzzy regression discontinuity design
  • Healthy-user bias
  • Inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW)
  • Longitudinal study
  • Natural experiment
  • Negative controls
  • Optimal bandwidth
  • Propensity scores
  • Selection bias
  • Subgroup analysis
  • Triangular kernel weights

Methodological morals

  • “Propensity scores are the lipstick you put on observational pigs.”
  • “Natural experiments are a hot flirtation date with causality.”

References

Detailed Show Notes Page

Kristin and Regina’s online courses:

Demystifying Data: A Modern Approach to Statistical Understanding

Clinical Trials: Design, Strategy, and Analysis

Medical Statistics Certificate Program

Writing in the Sciences

Epidemiology and Clinical Research Graduate Certificate Program

Programs that we teach in:

Epidemiology and Clinical Research Graduate Certificate Program

Find us on:

Kristin - LinkedIn & Twitter/X

Regina - LinkedIn & ReginaNuzzo.com

  • (00:00) - Intro and first gratuitous mention of sex
  • (03:56) - What are shingles, chickenpox, and the vaccines against them?
  • (12:30) - Fun facts about the varicella zoster and herpes viruses
  • (17:16) - A natural experiment in Wales
  • (21:10) - What is the Goldilocks optimal bandwidth?
  • (25:33) - Fuzzy regression discontinuity design demystified
  • (31:59) - Shingles vaccine vs dementia showdown
  • (33:29) - Absolute risk reduction paradox
  • (37:00) - Effects for men and women differ
  • (39:48) - A giant longitudinal study
  • (46:32) - Propensity scores demystified via Barbie and Oppenheimer
  • (52:36) - Using propensity scores to make matches
  • (56:49) - Inverse probability of treatment weighting demystified via more Barbenheimer
  • (01:01:08) - Attempts to rename IPTW for TikTok
  • (01:04:40) - Longitudinal study results
  • (01:08:41) - Smooch ratings and methodological morals: pigs and hot dates

  continue reading

21 episodes

Artwork
iconShare
 
Manage episode 517500479 series 3646567
Content provided by Regina Nuzzo and Kristin Sainani. All podcast content including episodes, graphics, and podcast descriptions are uploaded and provided directly by Regina Nuzzo and Kristin Sainani or their podcast platform partner. If you believe someone is using your copyrighted work without your permission, you can follow the process outlined here https://podcastplayer.com/legal.

What do chickenpox and shingles have to do with your brain? This week, we dig into two 2025 headline-grabbing studies that link the shingles shot to lower dementia rates. We start in Wales, where a birthday cutoff turned into the perfect natural experiment, and end in the U.S. with a multi-million-person megastudy. Featuring bias-variance Goldilockses, Fozzy-the-Bear regression discontinuities, a Barbie-versus-Oppenheimer showdown for propensity scores – and the hottest rebrand of inverse-probability weighting you’ll ever hear.

Statistical topics

  • Absolute vs. relative risk
  • Bias–variance tradeoff
  • Causal inference
  • Censoring
  • Confounding
  • Fuzzy regression discontinuity design
  • Healthy-user bias
  • Inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW)
  • Longitudinal study
  • Natural experiment
  • Negative controls
  • Optimal bandwidth
  • Propensity scores
  • Selection bias
  • Subgroup analysis
  • Triangular kernel weights

Methodological morals

  • “Propensity scores are the lipstick you put on observational pigs.”
  • “Natural experiments are a hot flirtation date with causality.”

References

Detailed Show Notes Page

Kristin and Regina’s online courses:

Demystifying Data: A Modern Approach to Statistical Understanding

Clinical Trials: Design, Strategy, and Analysis

Medical Statistics Certificate Program

Writing in the Sciences

Epidemiology and Clinical Research Graduate Certificate Program

Programs that we teach in:

Epidemiology and Clinical Research Graduate Certificate Program

Find us on:

Kristin - LinkedIn & Twitter/X

Regina - LinkedIn & ReginaNuzzo.com

  • (00:00) - Intro and first gratuitous mention of sex
  • (03:56) - What are shingles, chickenpox, and the vaccines against them?
  • (12:30) - Fun facts about the varicella zoster and herpes viruses
  • (17:16) - A natural experiment in Wales
  • (21:10) - What is the Goldilocks optimal bandwidth?
  • (25:33) - Fuzzy regression discontinuity design demystified
  • (31:59) - Shingles vaccine vs dementia showdown
  • (33:29) - Absolute risk reduction paradox
  • (37:00) - Effects for men and women differ
  • (39:48) - A giant longitudinal study
  • (46:32) - Propensity scores demystified via Barbie and Oppenheimer
  • (52:36) - Using propensity scores to make matches
  • (56:49) - Inverse probability of treatment weighting demystified via more Barbenheimer
  • (01:01:08) - Attempts to rename IPTW for TikTok
  • (01:04:40) - Longitudinal study results
  • (01:08:41) - Smooch ratings and methodological morals: pigs and hot dates

  continue reading

21 episodes

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