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Prediction is Hard, Especially about Confidence Levels

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Manage episode 509999784 series 2450263
Content provided by Ryan Evans and War on the Rocks. All podcast content including episodes, graphics, and podcast descriptions are uploaded and provided directly by Ryan Evans and War on the Rocks or their podcast platform partner. If you believe someone is using your copyrighted work without your permission, you can follow the process outlined here https://podcastplayer.com/legal.

Chris, Melanie, and Zack discuss the confidence problem among national security experts. As Jeffrey Friedman shows in a recent Texas National Security Review article, experts are often right but almost always overconfident in their predictions. What does this mean for the national security community? And how can experts address this systemic problem? Chris laments the Pentagon’s in-person gathering of military leaders and Melanie condemns misguided economic policymaking, while Zack commends President Trump’s support for a tougher NATO response to Russian incursions.

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168 episodes

Artwork
iconShare
 
Manage episode 509999784 series 2450263
Content provided by Ryan Evans and War on the Rocks. All podcast content including episodes, graphics, and podcast descriptions are uploaded and provided directly by Ryan Evans and War on the Rocks or their podcast platform partner. If you believe someone is using your copyrighted work without your permission, you can follow the process outlined here https://podcastplayer.com/legal.

Chris, Melanie, and Zack discuss the confidence problem among national security experts. As Jeffrey Friedman shows in a recent Texas National Security Review article, experts are often right but almost always overconfident in their predictions. What does this mean for the national security community? And how can experts address this systemic problem? Chris laments the Pentagon’s in-person gathering of military leaders and Melanie condemns misguided economic policymaking, while Zack commends President Trump’s support for a tougher NATO response to Russian incursions.

Links:

  continue reading

168 episodes

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