Fed focused on “signal to noise” ratio

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Thursday 20th March 2025

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The Fed kept rates on hold as expected and, unsurprisingly, cut their growth projections, increased inflation and increased the unemployment forecast for this year. But the dot plot has changed very little. NAB’s Gavin Friend joins Phil to dissect the Fed’s statement and Jerome Powell’s press conference that followed. It’s clear that the FOMC is in a wait-and-see mode in light of Trump’s policies and the next meeting will be the one to watch for. The forecasts also suggest that they see the inflationary impacts of tariffs to be transitory - something that was reinforced during the press conference. The Bank of Japan also sat on their hands, citing trade policy concerns. Next, it’s the Bank of England’s turn to do nothing. With no press conference or forecasts it’s up to you whether you stay up late for it. Before any of those, Australia’s employment data is out today, with NAB expecting a slight fall in the unemployment rate.

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