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Does the Hindenburg Omen mean the market is due to blow up?

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Manage episode 518187291 series 2562870
Content provided by Money Life with Chuck Jaffe and Chuck Jaffe. All podcast content including episodes, graphics, and podcast descriptions are uploaded and provided directly by Money Life with Chuck Jaffe and Chuck Jaffe or their podcast platform partner. If you believe someone is using your copyrighted work without your permission, you can follow the process outlined here https://podcastplayer.com/legal.

Tom McClellan, editor of The McClellan Market Report, says that market flirting with record highs has masked how many companies are actually reaching new lows, but that condition — when new lows outnumber new highs — is a key part of an indicator called the "Hindenburg Omen," a sign that historically shows up in the charts at market tops. It's been seen on the market four times in the last week, along with a similar indicator called the "Titanic Syndrome." Those are warning signs, McClellan says, but even if the rally continues for a while longer, he's expecting struggles in 2026 before a rebound in 2027.

Sam Tombs, chief U.S. economist at Pantheon Macro, discusses the struggles he sees for the economy right now, noting that many of the numbers that purport to show strength are not as clear or powerful as they seem. As a result, he thinks "we're in a slow-growth phase for the economy, and that's likely to persist at least for the next six months."

Plus, in the NAVigator segment, Seth Brufsky, chief executive officer for the Ares Dynamic Credit Allocation Fund, talks about how the start of rate cuts and a falling interest rate environment impacts high-yield bonds, leveraged loans and collateralized loan obligations, noting that rate-cut times are where active managers can show their mettle by making moves that outperform passive strategies in delivering high current income levels.

  continue reading

500 episodes

Artwork
iconShare
 
Manage episode 518187291 series 2562870
Content provided by Money Life with Chuck Jaffe and Chuck Jaffe. All podcast content including episodes, graphics, and podcast descriptions are uploaded and provided directly by Money Life with Chuck Jaffe and Chuck Jaffe or their podcast platform partner. If you believe someone is using your copyrighted work without your permission, you can follow the process outlined here https://podcastplayer.com/legal.

Tom McClellan, editor of The McClellan Market Report, says that market flirting with record highs has masked how many companies are actually reaching new lows, but that condition — when new lows outnumber new highs — is a key part of an indicator called the "Hindenburg Omen," a sign that historically shows up in the charts at market tops. It's been seen on the market four times in the last week, along with a similar indicator called the "Titanic Syndrome." Those are warning signs, McClellan says, but even if the rally continues for a while longer, he's expecting struggles in 2026 before a rebound in 2027.

Sam Tombs, chief U.S. economist at Pantheon Macro, discusses the struggles he sees for the economy right now, noting that many of the numbers that purport to show strength are not as clear or powerful as they seem. As a result, he thinks "we're in a slow-growth phase for the economy, and that's likely to persist at least for the next six months."

Plus, in the NAVigator segment, Seth Brufsky, chief executive officer for the Ares Dynamic Credit Allocation Fund, talks about how the start of rate cuts and a falling interest rate environment impacts high-yield bonds, leveraged loans and collateralized loan obligations, noting that rate-cut times are where active managers can show their mettle by making moves that outperform passive strategies in delivering high current income levels.

  continue reading

500 episodes

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