Mental Models: Brain and Investment Timing: #16

Mental Models Podcast It's not a brain in a jar, that's the gist!

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6y ago 25:38

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A challenge for investors is get the timing correct in their forecasts. How does the timing of current events impact the market and what is your brains role? This is relevant to the Equifax data breach and the 2008 housing crisis. Some experts were calling out the possibility of an economic crisis linked to subprime mortgage practices, but their timing was early. Predicting the speed at which events will unfold is extremely difficult. One particular speculation is the current day 'loss of 20-40% of China's hogs' (a primary source of the worlds protein) due to 'African Swine Fever'. This will likely affect future prices for many protein sources leading to rising prices by the end of 2019. Newly developing world events will cause a burst of noradrenaline (NA; AKA Norepinephrine, NE) within your brain. This chemical keeps your brain in a focused deliberative state, then moves you back into an exploratory state to track the progress of the proposed 'hog decline & world protein deficit'. The release of noradrenaline in your brain is particularly useful with the possible decline in the worlds protein (a never before event), helping investors to track the impact on the market. Or, we at Mental Models Podcast are suffering from 'confirmation bias' and the 'hog decline & world protein deficit' is an incorrect observation. Mental Models Podcast will revisit the prospective 'hog decline & world protein deficit' as time goes on. BUY “Understanding Behavioral BIA$” http://amzn.to/2XHtsOE | NEW Behavioral Finance BOOK | Behavioral finance advice and solutions. #mentalModels Behavioral finance advice Visit mentalmodelspodcast.com for more insights. This book will help you overcome the biases that are keeping you from investment success! Authored by Daniel Krawczyk, Ph.D. & George Baxter, JD, CFA your hosts of Mental models Podcast. Published by Business Expert Press Behavioral Finance Book AVAILABLE NOW ON AMAZON http://amzn.to/2XHtsOE Do you want strategies to make better financial decisions? Do you need a translational guide to Thinking Fast and Slow? Do you want to be a better investor and earn more money? If you said yes to any or all of the above questions then this book is for you! #understandingBehavioralbias Links: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-4-called-the-last-financial-crisis-heres-what-they-see-causing-the-next-one-2018-09-13 https://www.mentalmodelspodcast.com

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